Upsets Reshape the Playoff Picture as Week 8 Projections Put Miami Atop the Field

College football's run of chaos carried into a second week. Five ranked teams lost to unranked opponents on Saturday, extending the turbulence that began in Week 7 and forcing another reshuffle of the postseason outlook.

The Big 12 took the heaviest hit. No. 8 Texas Tech and No. 2 BYU both lost for the first time this season, with the Cougars falling to UCF in a double-overtime thriller. In the SEC, No. 19 Texas bounced back from two straight conference defeats by beating No. 7 Ole Miss.

The projections come under a new playoff structure for 2026. The champions of the Power 4 conferences receive automatic bids, as does the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, whether or not it won its league. The seven highest-ranked remaining teams fill out the 12-team bracket, and Notre Dame is assured a place if it ranks in the top 12.

The top four teams, who need not be conference champions, earn first-round byes. The other eight play first-round games at the campuses of the No. 5 through No. 8 seeds, on Dec. 18 and 19.

ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach differ on several matchups but agree on the top seed. Both place Miami at No. 1 and have the Hurricanes in the national championship game on Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Bonagura pairs them with No. 2 Ohio State, while Schlabach picks No. 3 Georgia.

In the first round, Bonagura has No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia, No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Indiana, No. 10 Wake Forest at No. 7 BYU and No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 Notre Dame. Schlabach sees No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 UCLA, No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana, No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Kentucky and No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Utah.

The quarterfinals begin with the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30 in Glendale, Arizona. Bonagura projects Georgia against Utah there, while Schlabach has UCLA facing Notre Dame. For the semifinals, Bonagura forecasts UCLA against Ohio State in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 14 and Utah against Miami in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 15. Schlabach has Notre Dame against Miami in the Orange Bowl and Texas against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl season opens with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12. Both analysts have South Carolina State in that game, against Jackson State in Bonagura's version and Alabama A&M in Schlabach's. Both also see Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 29, facing Oregon according to Bonagura and USC according to Schlabach.

The forecasts will keep changing. Bonagura and Schlabach plan to update their predictions every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day, Dec. 6.