Democrat Adam Hamilton is projected to win the Kansas Senate race, according to Decision Desk HQ, unseating Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall in a result that all but secures a Senate majority for Democrats.
DDHQ called the race at 10:48 p.m. EST on election night, projecting that Hamilton defeated Marshall by nearly 9 percentage points with 87 percent of votes counted. Hamilton will become the first Democrat to represent Kansas in the Senate since 1939.
The outcome marks another significant victory for Democratic Senate candidates in a cycle that has already seen the party projected to win seats in Texas and South Carolina.
Kansas had been viewed as a long shot for Democrats, but the party fielded one of its strongest recruits in Hamilton, 62, a Methodist pastor who generated a surge of fundraising and enthusiasm after winning the August primary.
Hamilton centered his campaign on his background as founding pastor of the largest Methodist church in the country. He also collected endorsements from prominent Kansas Republicans, including two former governors.
Marshall's campaign was hurt by a series of missteps. Earlier this fall, he defended the economy as strong, and he faced renewed scrutiny after a New York Times report said he had sued a number of patients over minor medical debts, some of whom ended up being arrested.
The incumbent also filmed a video defending himself that became public at the start of this week, a video his own advisers reportedly urged him not to release.
Marshall faced a difficult political climate for Republicans as public opinion continued to sour on President Trump and the war in Iran. Although Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, the state has elected several Democratic governors in recent years.
Marshall and national Republicans sought to portray Hamilton's faith as "woke," airing ads that spliced quotes from his sermons to suggest he believes white privilege and eating meat are sinful. But Hamilton was already well known in Kansas through his work as a pastor and author, and he used his mild manner and strong speaking skills to appeal to disillusioned Republicans and independents as well as Democrats.
Hamilton also kept distance from the Democratic establishment, saying he would not back Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) as majority leader if elected and criticizing the Biden administration's handling of the southern border. DDHQ had rated the seat a "toss-up" heading into Election Day.
