The NFL's international schedule continues on Sunday morning as the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons square off in Madrid, Spain, with kickoff set for 9:30 a.m. ET. The Week 9 matchup pairs two teams heading in opposite directions, and Cincinnati enters as the favorite in the latest pricing.
The Bengals have won three straight games, and Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense have put up at least 31 points in each of those victories. Atlanta, meanwhile, has dropped three of its last four, including a dispiriting 16-0 loss to Tampa Bay last week in which the Buccaneers managed to win despite not completing a pass.
Atlanta will be short-handed in the backfield, as running back Brian Robinson Jr. is inactive with a hamstring injury. The Falcons do get help on defense, with pass rusher James Pearce Jr. returning from suspension, and top wideout Drake London should be far more available to quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in this game.
On the prediction market Kalshi, a Cincinnati win was trading at $0.62 per share ahead of the game, a price that equates to a 62 percent probability. An Atlanta victory was priced at $0.38, implying a 38 percent chance. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has the Bengals winning at a 53 percent rate.
There are reasons for caution on the Cincinnati side. Two of the Bengals' three recent wins came against the lowly Dolphins and Titans, and Cincinnati allowed 36 points to Tennessee in one of them. It is also worth noting that Atlanta's shutout loss last week came in disastrous weather and against a strong Tampa Bay defense.
The spread market expects a competitive game, with Cincinnati winning by more than 3.5 points trading at $0.46 for yes and $0.55 for no. The Falcons are below average when it comes to defending the pass, which suits a Bengals offense that lives and dies with the trio of Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The open questions are whether the Cincinnati defense can do its part and whether Pearce's presence in the defensive front causes problems for Burrow.
The total for the game sits at 52.5 points, with yes trading at $0.51 and no at $0.50. The Bengals have conceded the seventh most yards per game, but it remains to be seen whether the Falcons can be competent enough on offense to exploit that weakness. Penix is prone to fits of inaccuracy, and Cincinnati is stronger against the run than against the pass, which could make for a difficult afternoon for Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson. If the Falcons can eat up yardage, the over comes into play.
