Two first-place teams with identical 6-1 records close out Week 9 when the Minnesota Vikings host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night, with Buffalo installed as a three-point favorite. Despite the matching marks, the consequences of a loss would look very different for each side.
Buffalo holds a comfortable three-game lead over the Patriots in the AFC East, a cushion that grew when Green Bay beat New England on Sunday. Minnesota faces far more pressure. A defeat would drop the Vikings into a tie with the 6-2 Lions, just outside the top spot in a crowded NFC North race.
The Vikings will also be without quarterback Kyler Murray, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. That leaves Carson Wentz under center, and there is plenty of speculation that the injury could double as a quiet benching, talk that would only grow louder if Wentz plays well against Buffalo.
One expert's top bet for the game is the Over on a total of 44.5. Taking an Over in a Vikings game carries risk because of Minnesota's elite defense, which should be ready at home in primetime. Still, the thinking goes, the number sits slightly too low for this matchup. Josh Allen can be counted on to produce points, and the Vikings' passing offense, even with Wentz, should generate explosive plays thanks to the varied personnel packages Minnesota is using.
Among player props, Justin Jefferson topping 76.5 receiving yards stands out. Switching to a backup quarterback is usually bad news for a star receiver, but Wentz has already started a few games this season. One came in wild weather against the Bears. In the other, against the Packers, Wentz targeted Jefferson nine times, producing eight catches, 92 yards and two touchdowns. Wentz has shown no hesitation locking onto Jefferson, and Buffalo's struggling pass defense sets up well for another heavy dose of targets.
Ty Johnson going Over 14.5 receiving yards is another recommended play. The Bills running back has just six carries all season but is a favorite option out of the backfield, drawing 15 targets and clearing this number in all but one game. The risk is a Buffalo blowout in which James Cook dominates the workload, but in a competitive game Johnson should stay involved, including as a quick outlet for Allen when Minnesota sends blitzers.
For anytime touchdown bets, Dalton Kincaid headlines the list. The Bills tight end has only two scores this season, and his early heavy usage faded, but the past two weeks have shown renewed life. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has acknowledged he moved away from Kincaid during the middle of the year and is now designing more plays for him, a trend expected to continue Monday.
T.J. Hockenson is the other anytime touchdown suggestion. Buffalo's defense can be attacked through the air, and when Wentz previously filled in for Murray he fed Jefferson first and leaned on Hockenson as his second option. In the red zone, that role makes Hockenson an appealing target at a solid price.
