SEC Chases Record Haul of College Football Playoff Bids as Three-Loss Logjam Looms

The SEC's push for a record-setting five or more College Football Playoff bids comes down to one question: how many three-loss teams can the league squeeze into the 12-team bracket on Selection Sunday next month? Coming out of Week 10, the picture is crowded, and the selection committee's first rankings only fueled the debate, including Alabama landing eight spots ahead of Tennessee even though the Volunteers won that head-to-head meeting.

Ten wins is viewed as the magic number to virtually guarantee an at-large berth out of the SEC, and only five teams can still get there: Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee. LSU, Ole Miss and South Carolina each already have three losses and need help. The committee has already shown respect for the league through its new strength of conference metric, a number that should only improve over the final three weeks of the regular season.

Finishing 9-3 gets a team in the room but not necessarily an invitation. Among the potential nine-win finishers, excluding one-loss Georgia, Texas owns the strongest resume entering Week 11 with four nationally ranked wins, followed by Alabama, with ranked wins over Kentucky and LSU, and Tennessee, with ranked wins over Alabama and Kentucky. LSU has yet to beat a ranked opponent, while South Carolina has one such victory, over Tennessee. Those candidates figure to be clustered with runners-up from the Big 12 and ACC, plus top Big Ten teams, for the final spots.

Georgia and Alabama appear on a collision course for what could be the league's final conference championship game in Atlanta next month. Georgia (8-1) is in the best shape to claim a top-four seed and a first-round bye after consecutive blowout wins over Florida and Ole Miss. Kirby Smart's team, which finishes SEC play against Missouri and South Carolina, is a near-lock if it wins out, with a Nov. 21 trip to South Carolina the chaos scenario.

Alabama (7-2) has the softest closing stretch of the prime contenders: Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn, with an Iron Bowl stumble on Nov. 28 the main danger. Since consecutive October losses to Georgia and Tennessee, the Crimson Tide have been sharper in execution and considerably better on defense, and Saturday's win at LSU was another mammoth addition to the resume.

Texas (7-2) leads college football in ranked wins after improving to 4-0 against ranked opponents by beating Missouri, and all but punches its ticket, plus a first-round home game, by handling LSU on Saturday. Tennessee (7-2), coming off a 34-6 rout of Kentucky, has two wins over top-10 opponents and no truly damaging loss, but a slip at Texas A&M on Saturday would make the Week 12 meeting with LSU in Knoxville a must-win. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek figures to address the gap between the Vols and Alabama when the new rankings arrive Tuesday night.

Kentucky (7-2) still controls its fate despite absorbing a 28-point beating inside Neyland Stadium. If the Wildcats beat Florida, Missouri and Louisville to finish 10-2, they are in, though their ranked wins over LSU and South Carolina could lose value if those teams keep falling.

South Carolina (6-3) would carry a nation-leading seven-game winning streak into Selection Sunday if it runs the table, including a Nov. 21 shot at top-ranked Georgia, and LaNorris Sellers' ankle injury is not considered serious for Shane Beamer's squad, which opened SEC play 0-3. LSU (6-3), coached by Lane Kiffin, could build a late case with ranked wins over Texas and Tennessee but is staggering after the loss to Alabama.

Ole Miss (6-3) needs the most help after a 35-point home loss to Georgia, its second lopsided defeat of the season following a 24-point loss earlier. Without a signature victory, the Rebels are counting on teams ahead of them, including BYU, Tennessee, LSU and Kentucky, to drop games they should not down the stretch.