Rays Try to Extend World Series as Brewers Look to Close Out Game 5

The Tampa Bay Rays will try to win a second straight game and keep their World Series hopes alive when they host the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 5 on Wednesday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET.

Tampa Bay avoided elimination on Tuesday with a 4-3 victory that took 12 innings, trimming Milwaukee's lead in the best-of-seven series to 3-1. The Brewers, who finished the regular season 103-59, are still one win away from the first championship in franchise history.

Milwaukee is expected to start Jacob Misiorowski, who went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA this season. The Rays are expected to answer with Drew Rasmussen, who was 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, although the club has not confirmed its pitching plans. Tampa Bay ended its own campaign at 98-64.

Oddsmakers favor the visitors. The latest lines list Milwaukee at -154 on the money line, meaning a bettor risks $154 to win $100, while Tampa Bay is at +128. The over/under for total runs is 6.5.

SportsLine's computer model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times, leans toward a higher-scoring game. It recommends the Over on 6.5 combined runs at -119 and projects 8.4 combined runs, with the Over landing in 69% of its simulations. The model entered the World Series with a 32-25 record on its top-rated MLB money-line picks, which returned more than $1,000 to a $100 bettor.

Recent trends back that view. The Over has hit in four of the last six meetings between the clubs. It is 5-2 in Milwaukee's last seven games and 4-3 in Tampa Bay's last seven. The Over is also 8-5-2 in Rays home games when the line is 7.0 or lower, and 20-16-4 in all Tampa Bay games when the opposing team allows 3.9 or fewer runs.

The model also singles out individual hitters. It projects Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers of the Brewers to reach at least 1.5 total bases. For the Rays, it expects Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda to each total at least 1.4.

The model also identified a side on the money line that it considers the better value, but that pick is available only through SportsLine. For Milwaukee, a win would end the series and settle the championship. For Tampa Bay, another victory would send the Fall Classic back to the Brewers' home park.