Families in China are supporting more older people than children for the first time, according to figures released by the government. The data points to a demographic turning point for the world's second largest economy.
Statistics published over the past week show that the ratio of dependent elderly people to the working age population climbed to 23% last year. The equivalent ratio for children stood at 22%. Analysts watch these numbers closely for signs of how a shrinking workforce will affect both China's economy and global growth.
The National Bureau of Statistics reports that more than 223 million people in China are aged 65 and above, nearly 16% of the total population. About 213 million children are aged 14 and under. Analysts say the shift could have consequences for families, pensions and healthcare spending.
No official commentary accompanied the figures. The state-controlled Global Times wrote that the country's "entry into a moderately ageing society" stems from several factors, including the "size of past birth cohorts" and longer life expectancy. The newspaper said the change could add strain to pension, healthcare and long-term care systems, while opening opportunities in the so-called silver economy that serves older consumers. It quoted one researcher as saying the trend reflects "a historical trend in demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon."
Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology called the shift "symbolic" and said it could mean public spending moves away from families and schools toward pensions and healthcare. Mu Zheng, a sociology lecturer at the National University of Singapore, said the trend may challenge the country's ambitions by limiting economic growth and people's spending power.
Ageing in China has been driven by rapid urbanisation and the legacy of the one-child policy, which ran from 1980 to the end of 2015. The government estimates the policy prevented about 400 million births, though that figure has been contested. Mu said the policy played a key role in shrinking the population, leaving fewer young people to support a growing number of elderly relatives.
Beijing has eased limits on family size but has struggled to persuade couples to have more children, and birth rates have fallen to historic lows. Mu pointed to changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels as additional pressures on fertility.
The government has made further support for older people part of its five-year economic blueprint, announced earlier this year. Financial help for pensioners has become a growing share of public spending, and official figures show more than 53 million elderly people were receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025. The Global Times noted that many people now entering old age, born between the 1950s and the 1970s, generally have higher incomes, stronger purchasing power and better health than earlier generations.
The dependency ratio is widely used to measure population ageing, but some experts question it, arguing its scope is too narrow. Gietel-Basten said relying on the statistic risks "taking agency away" from older people, many of whom he says are misrepresented as dependants. He added that it also fails to account for improvements in healthcare.
