As the United States heads toward midterm elections on November 3, Pakistan is among the countries with a particular stake in the outcome. Islamabad has cultivated an unexpectedly close relationship with President Donald Trump, and Republicans are currently expected to lose critical seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The contrast with much of the world is stark. Trump's second term has brought sweeping tariffs, the Iran war, and strained ties with traditional allies, many of whom are now seeking alternative partnerships. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar noted in New York in late September that "much of the world has had a more difficult relationship with the US." Pakistan, a rival of India, is an exception. It has faced domestic criticism over allegations that it is crushing political opposition and entrenching military rule in all but name.
The turnaround followed years of decline. Successive US presidents had built close ties with India, and Washington viewed Islamabad as duplicitous over its support for both the US and the Afghan Taliban. In March 2025, Trump thanked Pakistan in an address to Congress for helping arrest a suspect in the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport. The major shift came in May, when India and Pakistan fought a four-day war after armed fighters killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. A ceasefire took hold on May 10. Trump announced it first and Pakistan credited him with mediating, though India says bilateral talks ended the fighting.
Since then, Pakistan's leaders have been welcomed at the White House, where Trump hosted Field Marshal Asim Munir for lunch and called him his "favourite field marshal." A July 2025 trade deal cut US tariffs on Pakistani goods from 29 to 19 percent, and agreements with US firms on minerals, cryptocurrency and drones followed. Pakistan also nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Islamabad has also played a diplomatic role in the Iran conflict. After the US-Israel attacks on Iran in February, Pakistan brokered an April 8 ceasefire and hosted the highest-level direct talks between the sides since 1979. In June, the two countries agreed to the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. The 60-day window for further talks lapsed in mid-August without an extension, and Munir's fifth trip to Tehran, on October 20, produced no breakthrough.
Trump enters the midterms with weak polling. A Pew Research Center survey conducted between September 28 and October 4 put his approval at 30 percent, down from 37 percent in January. Imran Khan, a geopolitical analyst and former Pakistan country director at the United States Institute of Peace, said a Democratic majority in both chambers would likely prioritise treaty alliances such as NATO and "lean more towards India than Pakistan."
Khan also cautioned that Pakistan has gained little directly from Washington beyond intangibles such as a higher diplomatic profile and geopolitical relevance. Grace Wermenbol of the German Marshall Fund said the Iran war still looms over the Gulf, with growing signs that the US, possibly with Israel, could relaunch attacks after their respective elections. Israel votes on October 27.
For Islamabad, the question is how to stay relevant. Qamar Cheema of the Sanober Institute said Pakistan should not tie its approach to Trump's rising or falling influence, arguing its strength lies in its Middle East role and in protecting US interests. Khan said a weaker Trump might change little in the short term, but that Pakistan's raised global profile and defence relevance in West Asia would endure whether or not Trump remains in office.