Winter across the United States is expected to be warmer and wetter than usual as a powerful El Niño, which some agencies are calling a "Super El Niño," reshapes weather patterns around the globe. The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration points to above-average temperatures across much of the continental U.S. and above-average precipitation in several regions.
"It's a strong, if not historic El Niño going into this winter," said Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. El Niño years are also linked to coastal flooding along the Eastern seaboard and the West Coast. Forecasters stress that the outlook deals in odds, not certainties, because El Niño can tilt conditions in a direction without guaranteeing them. Graham said seasonal predictions help communities assess risks and prepare, adding that "earlier and better decisions saves lives."
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where a vast area of water near the equator warms every few years and releases huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere. Meteorologists say this one could be the strongest on record, and it is arriving on top of warming driven by fossil fuel emissions. NASA climate scientist Josh Willis likens it to Godzilla, saying it "breathes fire" on Indonesia and Southeast Asia, where severe drought and major wildfires are underway, while its tail stirs up storms and high tides on the American side of the Pacific.
On the West Coast, forecasters expect warmer temperatures in Northern California and above-average precipitation across the state, especially in the south. Parts of Nevada, the southern Rockies and California's San Bernardino Mountains could see more snow. A Kelvin wave, a band of warm water that raises sea levels, reached the coast in early October and was one of the factors behind coastal flooding tied to Tropical Storm Rachel, said Dillon Amaya of North Carolina State University. Another wave was off California between Los Angeles and San Francisco in late October, with more expected through early winter.
The Pacific Northwest should also be warmer, but parts of the region are forecast to get less precipitation than normal, which would likely mean a smaller snowpack. Dry forests and parched soils raise the risk of wildfires, and low-lying coastal communities are shoring up infrastructure against a possible combination of El Niño and winter high tides. NOAA meteorologist Jon Gottschalck said he expects drought in western Oregon and Western Washington to improve and possibly end.
The Southwest is already seeing wetter conditions. Severe flooding in the Four Corners region in late October forced rooftop rescues and evacuations after two months of unusually wet weather. Climate scientist Daniel Swain said El Niño is partly to blame, along with record-warm waters off the West Coast that feed moisture into storms. He added that the marine heat wave can largely be attributed to human-caused climate change, and that the rain will not end the Colorado River basin's water crisis. Lake Powell and Lake Mead remain at record lows.
In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, forecasters expect warmer and wetter conditions, with flooding similar to that of a record-setting 2023 El Niño event. Studies suggest El Niño can make nor'easters more frequent by pushing warm, moist air northward. Snow is still possible: a strong El Niño in 2016 produced a blizzard with more than 30 inches of snow and 60 mph gusts. "It doesn't erase the risk," Graham said.
The South has the best chance of above-average precipitation, and Gottschalck said snow could even reach areas that rarely see it, including northern Texas. Northern Florida and southern Georgia and South Carolina have the highest odds in the continental U.S. of a wetter winter. Florida's tornado risk is also typically higher in El Niño years, and a 1998 outbreak in Central Florida killed 42 people.
In the Midwest, especially the Upper Midwest, warmer temperatures are expected to leave a smaller snowpack than normal. Michigan, Ohio and Indiana tend to be drier in El Niño winters, while Iowa tends to be wetter, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Gottschalck said drought is expected to persist across the region this winter, and concern is growing that it could worsen.
