The Week 10 edition of Thursday Night Football features an NFC East clash as the New York Giants welcome the Washington Commanders to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12, with streaming available on Amazon Prime. The Giants enter as 2.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 40.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York sits atop the division and has won each of its last two games sandwiching a Week 8 bye, a surprising position in the first year of the John Harbaugh era. The Giants lost starting quarterback Jaxson Dart in Week 2 and recently turned to J.J. McCarthy in place of Jameis Winston, yet they have kept on winning. Washington, meanwhile, climbed out of last place in the NFC East with a Week 8 victory over the struggling Philadelphia Eagles but still owns the second-worst record in the conference. The Commanders are also out to atone for badly mismanaging the clock the last time these teams met.
When Washington has the ball, efficiency has been hard to find. The Commanders rank 21st in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt and 23rd in designed rushing yards per carry. Their most effective weapon has been the scramble: Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota have combined for 29 scrambles totaling 274 yards, the most in the league, per Tru Media. Daniels has completed 63.9 percent of his passes at 6.9 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, but he owns a 43.9 percent passing success rate and has converted just 30.9 percent of his third downs.
The Giants' defense could make life difficult through the air. New York ranks second in passing success rate allowed and third in explosives per dropback, and Daniels is working with a limited receiving corps in the absence of Terry McLaurin. However, the Giants have been vulnerable to quarterback runs, allowing scrambles on a league-high 23.9 percent of pressured dropbacks and 225 scramble yards overall. With Jacory Croskey-Merritt out, Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler handle backfield duties, though throwing to backs means testing rookie linebacker Arvell Reese, who has excelled in space. Daniels' remaining targets include Stefon Diggs, Antonio Williams, Van Jefferson and Chig Okonkwo, with the perimeter receivers facing an improved Deonte Banks and the recently extended Greg Newsome II. Daniels holds the seventh-highest deep throw rate among qualified quarterbacks, but the Giants rank second in EPA per dropback when defending deep passes.
When New York has the ball, McCarthy has been a study in contrasts since taking over during garbage time of a Week 6 loss to the Saints. He has completed only 63.2 percent of his passes with one touchdown and one interception, ranking 31st in success rate among 37 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks. Yet he is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, throws farther downfield than anyone in the league at a 10.6-yard average depth of target, and leads the NFL with an explosive play rate of 16.0 percent per dropback, sitting 15th in EPA per dropback. Washington's defense is the mirror image, ranking 21st in passing success rate allowed but 11th in limiting explosives.
McCarthy's favorite target has been Malik Nabers, who has drawn 31.7 percent of his throws, while Malachi Fields has emerged as the secondary option at 20.6 percent, ahead of Isaiah Likely's 17.5 percent. Before McCarthy took over, Likely tied Nabers for the team lead at 29.4 percent, with Fields at just 11.2 percent. Nabers and Fields will mostly work against Rasul Douglas and Amik Robertson, while Likely figures to see rookie linebacker Sonny Styles, slot corner Mike Sainristil and safeties Jeremy Reaves and Nick Cross. Washington has pressured quarterbacks on only 33.5 percent of dropbacks, 25th in the league, while McCarthy has been among the most-pressured passers since taking over, in part because he holds the ball looking for big plays.
On the ground, the Giants get Cam Skattebo back, and he is expected to reclaim the lead role from Devin Singletary, who struggled last week. Skattebo has averaged 4.3 yards per carry with a 45.9 percent success rate and had his best game of the year before sitting out after the bye. The Commanders have been stout against the run, surrendering just 3.9 yards per carry with strong marks both before and after contact.
The prediction here is that New York finds a way despite the uneven profile. Four of the Giants' five wins have come in one-score games, and they did not look sharp against the Eagles last week, but Washington's inability to run and its inefficient passing attack inspire little confidence. Pick: Giants 20, Commanders 14, a result that would move New York to 6-2-1.
