One Nation draws level with Labor as discontent with Albanese climbs in latest Essential poll

One Nation has pulled level with Labor on primary vote in the latest Guardian Essential poll, as public disapproval of Anthony Albanese rose to its equal highest on record and a record share of Australians said the country is heading in the wrong direction.

The poll of 1,087 Australians, conducted last week, had Labor and One Nation tied on 28% each, with the Coalition further back on 23%. Both conservative parties gained ground from the previous month, when One Nation was on 25% and the Coalition on 22%. Labor dropped a point from 29% in September. The survey was taken early last week, after the alleged attack on the respected independent MP Helen Haines.

Albanese's disapproval rating rose two points to 56%, matching the highest level in Essential's polling since he became prime minister in 2022. His approval rose one point to 38%, leaving a net approval of -18. Disapproval has been this high only once before, in August, when approval was lower at 35% and net approval was -21.

Opposition leader Angus Taylor recorded 35% approval and 40% disapproval, for a net approval of -5. That is a marked improvement on September, when his approval was 31% and disapproval 43%.

A record share of respondents also said the nation is on the wrong track. In October, 61% held that view, while only 25% believed the country was heading in the right direction. The figure was just 38% in May 2023 and has risen steadily during Labor's time in office. It climbed from 46% in October 2025 to 54% in January, and has not fallen below 50% since.

Voters were also inclined to blame the government for cost-of-living pressures. Asked to pick the main cause of rising living costs from a list, 32% named government spending. Global events such as the war in the Middle East were nominated by 24%, and supermarket price gouging by 19%.

Despite Labor's weak numbers, voters have not clearly turned to an alternative. On which party is trusted to "ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians", Labor led on 32%, ahead of One Nation on 29% and the Coalition on 18%. Some 21% saw no difference between them. On managing the country generally, Labor again led on 31%, with One Nation on 25% and the Coalition on 23%.

"This is a sobering poll for Labor, but not a ringing endorsement of One Nation either," said Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media. He added that the key markers are historic lows for Labor midway through its term, but that the electorate is clearly not settled on any viable alternative. He also pointed to a challenge for the government: the perception that local factors, rather than "the global chaos emanating from the White House", are to blame for cost-of-living pressure.

The poll also asked how voters think Pauline Hanson's party would govern. On immigration, 43% said One Nation would do better than current settings and 33% said worse. On relationships with trading partners such as the US and China, only 20% expected a better result, while 39% expected a worse one. Verdicts were also mixed or negative on energy policy (29% better, 36% worse), grocery costs (27% better, 37% worse), managing a crisis like a pandemic (23% better, 41% worse) and the economy (29% better, 39% worse).