President Donald Trump's war with Iran, which he has called a "little detour," has become a major political burden for Republicans as they try to hold Congress in the final two years of his term. The conflict is nearly eight months old, though Trump predicted at the start that it would last only weeks.
Voters across the spectrum are feeling the strain. Noor Dubow, 44, a dispatcher at a trucking logistics firm in Columbus, Ohio, said he usually votes for Republicans who match his economic views, though he has never admired Trump. This year, he leaned toward Democrats on his early ballot because of the war. "Where are the Republicans in Congress?" he asked. "Why aren't the Republicans holding Trump accountable?"
An AP-NORC poll published last week found that voters from both major parties want the next Congress, whatever the Nov. 3 result, to focus on making life more affordable and on ending the war. Diesel prices remain near all-time highs, and the national gasoline average has stayed above $4 per gallon since mid-June. That is complicating races in typically conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
The conflict has also widened. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have carried out a series of attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports, and a Saudi-led coalition has answered with deadly strikes on Houthi-held territory in Yemen. Over the weekend, the State Department said it was reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after intelligence indicated Iran had stepped up efforts to target American personnel.
Trump has played down the economic effects. At a weekend rally in Michigan, he said he had no regrets and that gas prices were not as bad as he had feared. "I thought gas would be double or triple. And it's a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs," he said. He often says the war is close to ending, then warns of a new round of heavy bombing after the election. He has also called the affordability argument a "hoax" or "scam" invented by Democrats.
Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, said the mixed message has put Republican candidates in a difficult position. "Trump's messaging on the war is resonating with a shrinking portion of the electorate," he said. Only a few elected Republicans have broken with the president over the war.
Party strategists have been worried for months. Five Republican strategists told The Associated Press early in the summer that they saw warning signs. A June interim ceasefire with Tehran briefly lifted confidence, but it fell apart within weeks. Strategists, speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss internal data, said some House districts Trump won easily in 2024 began to look competitive. After Labor Day, internal polls showed voters increasingly linking the war to higher grocery and travel costs.
Some Trump supporters remain loyal despite the costs. Clay Coey, 59, an auctioneer from DeWitt, Michigan, said he is willing to pay more temporarily to remove a security threat, but added, "what is worth the cost?" Elizabeth Marlett, 61, a rancher from Moville, Iowa, wished Trump had not set a timeline, yet said, "We need to support our commander in chief, even if things take longer than expected."
Others feel betrayed by a president who promised to avoid "forever wars." Sean O'Brien, 21, an Auburn University student who attended the Conservative Political Action Conference earlier this year, said he is "very disillusioned." Considering himself an independent, he said, "At the moment, I expect to vote Democratic."
