As Americans head to the polls in the 2026 midterm elections, the central question for many viewers is when the outcome of congressional control will be determined. Unlike the 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump’s wins in key battleground states provided a clear result by morning, the race for the House and Senate may take significantly longer to resolve. Democrats are currently favored in national polling for the House and several critical Senate seats, but the timing of the final calls depends heavily on state counting procedures and the closeness of individual races.
Determining which party holds the Senate will likely hinge on eight specific contests rated as toss-ups or leaning Democratic by NBC News. These include states such as Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Even if Democrats secure victories in the states currently rated as likely Democratic, they still need to capture five of these eight battleground races to claim a majority. The speed at which these states report their results will dictate when a projection can be made.
Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas are expected to be among the fastest to count, with more than 80% of their votes typically tallied by midnight Eastern Time. If historical patterns hold, calls in these states may come before midnight, especially if there is a significant spread in the results. However, winning all four of these states is not enough for Democrats to secure the Senate, meaning the night will continue even if these races are decided early.
New Hampshire and Michigan present a slower but steady counting process because their elections are administered by towns and municipalities rather than counties. This decentralized approach often extends the counting period into the early morning or midday on Wednesday. In Michigan, Wayne County, which includes Detroit, frequently releases large batches of votes between midnight and 3 a.m. Eastern Time. Because of this, statewide races in Michigan often cannot be called without these results, making early morning calls unlikely if the race is close.
Maine and Alaska are the slowest counters in this group and introduce additional complexity due to their use of ranked choice voting. In Alaska, mail ballots from remote areas can arrive up to 15 days after the election, and the ranked choice tabulation occurs two weeks after Election Day. In Maine, the process is similar, with tabulation taking roughly 10 days. If either state is needed to determine the Senate majority, Americans may have to wait several weeks for a final answer.
The race for the House, which consists of 435 seats, requires a net gain of just three seats for Democrats to flip control from the Republicans. While Democrats are heavily favored, the size of their potential majority will influence how quickly a projection can be made. A large margin could lead to an early call, but a razor-thin majority could take days or even weeks to confirm, as seen in the 2022 and 2024 elections where it took nearly two weeks to project the 218th seat.
Early indicators from states with quick counting times will provide clues about the broader trend. Kentucky’s 6th District, where polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time, serves as a key bellwether. A narrow Republican win there would signal a favorable outcome for Democrats nationally, while a strong Republican victory might suggest a tighter race for the House. Similarly, Florida’s 25th, 14th, and 22nd Districts are critical toss-ups that may be called early in the night due to the state’s rapid reporting of results.
Throughout the evening, the NBC News Decision Desk will utilize a statistical model to estimate the total number of seats each party is projected to win. This model relies on vote counts rather than polling data. Depending on the speed of the count and the closeness of the races, viewers may learn the winner of the House and Senate as early as late Tuesday night or as late as the following week.
