Likud Split Over Netanyahu's Odds as Election Eve Turnout Fight Intensifies

With Israelis due to vote on Tuesday, people inside Likud are divided over how the party will fare, according to a Likud source. Some members are confident of victory, while others fear a strong turnout effort among voters opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The optimists draw their confidence from the forecasts of Shlomo Filber, who runs the party's internal polling. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said. Of Filber, the source added: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

A main source of concern is the work of organizations and nonprofits that, according to party sources, are directing large sums toward getting out the vote in the rival camp. The sources described a wide-ranging campaign that ran throughout the election period without direct funding from the parties. It reportedly included social media campaigns, signs, field events, rides for Arab voters, and efforts to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote.

One Likud source described the activity as "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The source argued that the groups give parties opposed to Netanyahu a broad support network that sits outside party-financing rules. The sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts they cited or for the claim that the activity was illegal.

Likud also took aim at the Central Elections Committee. The party claimed the committee concentrated on enforcing limits on campaign videos and on the use of public resources, while giving too little attention to the organizations' work.

Meanwhile, Likud is preparing a large ground operation for Election Day, even though there are restrictions on obtaining information from polling stations. The party is concentrating on keeping right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates.

Attempts to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to leave the race failed. Winter is a former commander of the Givati Brigade and leads the People of Israel party. The effort included talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan, who afterward issued a statement supporting Winter.

Likud is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, among them the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister was also raised.

The election date was set for October 27, which lets Netanyahu's government serve out its full term. A survey published a few days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided.