The No. 23 Kentucky Wildcats begin their 2026-27 campaign on Tuesday night when they welcome the Manhattan Jaspers to Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., with tipoff scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. It is the first meeting ever between the two programs.
Kentucky is looking for a stronger start after back-to-back disappointing seasons to open the Mark Pope era. The Wildcats finished 22-14 last year before being eliminated in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, and they have gone 10-8 in SEC play in each of Pope's two seasons in charge.
The roster has been turned over significantly. Kentucky must replace 11 players, including four starters, though the Wildcats did land one of the most sought-after transfers in the country in Iowa State forward Milan Momcilovic. They also bring back 7-foot center Malachi Moreno, who served as an anchor of the Wildcats' defense.
Manhattan comes off a 12-20 season and is picked to finish 10th in the 13-team Metro Conference, the league formerly known as the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Scoring has not been a strength for the Jaspers.
The Wildcats are listed as 33.5-point favorites in the latest Kentucky vs. Manhattan odds, and the over/under for total points is set at 158.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times, enters the 2026-27 season on an 11-1 run with its top-rated over/under picks dating back to 2025. The model is also on a 28-22 run with its top-rated college basketball side picks.
For Tuesday's opener, the model is leaning Under on the 158.5-point total. It projects 157 combined points, with the Under hitting in 56% of simulations. The model notes it could take time for a reworked Kentucky roster to mesh, which supports a lower-scoring outcome.
History also points that direction: the Under went 18-13 in Manhattan games last season.
In addition to the total play, the model says one side of the 33.5-point spread covers in almost 70% of its 10,000 simulations.
