The UK is set to miss its own target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid by an estimated £400m by the end of next year, according to new calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD).
The researchers said the central forecast in the Treasury's comparison of independent experts implies that UK aid in 2027 would be £410m lower than planned, amounting to just 0.29% of national income. They described a shortfall of £580m, or 0.28% of national income, as "very plausible". Even the most conservative forecast points to a gap of £250m.
Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, called these "material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid". He said that closing a gap of even £400m would be enough to halve planned cuts to Africa, which are likely to cost thousands of lives and amount to a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent.
The CGD blamed the gap on two factors. Inflation has come in higher than expected, which means national income will be larger than forecast at the spending review. A 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) also contributed. The researchers urged ministers to consider adding funds for international aid in this week's budget, so as to avoid the embarrassment and criticism that would follow from missing a target.
The 0.3% goal for 2027 is well below the 0.7% promised in Labour's election manifesto. Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up money for defence spending.
Fleur Anderson, a former minister who sits on the foreign affairs select committee, said she wanted to see higher aid spending in the budget. "I'd like to see this government going further and reversing these cuts altogether in time, but at the very least we should be hitting the reduced target that was set," she said. She added that falling short "isn't an abstract accounting issue", and pointed to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines and cuts to peace programmes in war zones.
Charities have repeatedly warned that the deep aid cuts will damage children's education and raise the risk of disease and death in some African countries. Figures released by the FCDO in September showed that the cuts under Starmer's government hit the world's poorest nations hardest, while higher-income countries received a larger share. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118m. The UK's overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, from 0.5% in 2024, a fall of £987m.
The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association, the World Bank's development arm, and the global vaccines initiative Gavi. It has also kept up humanitarian support. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9bn a year to £1bn, a level that would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the UN and World Bank.
An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans and priorities for the next three financial years, based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. "Moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes," the spokesperson said.