Holding presidential power and being able to use it effectively are not the same thing, and few leaders have illustrated that gap as starkly as Donald Trump, political scientist Ian Bremmer said in a wide-ranging interview with France 24 this week.
Bremmer, the founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, argued that the United States has entered a new political phase following what he described as the most consequential electoral reversal for a governing party in more than half a century. His conclusion: the country has already passed 'peak Trump,' and the president's capacity to dominate the domestic and international agenda is beginning to end.
The scale of the shift is striking in Bremmer's telling. 'Trump back in 2024 engineered for himself the biggest political comeback in American political history. And now, only two years later, the biggest loss in 50 years,' he said.
Bremmer was careful to stress that Trump has not become powerless. The president remains commander-in-chief, holds the instruments of executive government and continues to command extraordinary media attention. What is eroding, Bremmer argued, is his ability to convert those advantages into effective political outcomes, as he faces congressional opposition, discontent within Republican ranks and unpopular foreign policy decisions.
The repercussions reach well beyond Washington, he said. From the war in Iran to the unresolved conflict in Ukraine and the future of transatlantic relations, allies and adversaries alike are starting to recalibrate their strategies for a post-Trump era. 'Those foreign leaders will start to engage more with the America that they expect to deal with after Trump is gone,' Bremmer said, pointing to the growing recognition abroad that the current administration has a limited political horizon.
On the domestic front, Bremmer attributed the transformation to economic disillusionment, unfulfilled electoral promises and accusations of political self-interest, forces he said have weakened the very coalition that returned Trump to the White House. He also pointed to the president's apparent focus on monumental projects and personal legacy, raising questions about the gap between political spectacle and the responsibilities of governing.
Looking ahead, Bremmer's assessment was blunt. 'Yes, two more years to go. But nowhere near the level of disruption that he had on the global stage at the beginning of this term,' he said.
The interview leaves a larger question hanging over American democracy and the international order: whether a president can keep the formal powers of the world's most consequential office while steadily losing the political authority needed to shape its future. In Bremmer's view, that process is already underway.
