Moldova Overtakes Ukraine on Path to EU Membership, Brussels Roadmaps Suggest

The European Union has effectively acknowledged that Moldova has moved ahead of Ukraine in the European integration process, according to an analysis by European Pravda of the accession roadmaps drawn up by Brussels for candidate countries.

In the article, titled "Less reform, more success: what the EU has promised Ukraine for 2027 and where its optimism comes from", the outlet notes that the introductory and descriptive sections of the roadmaps prepared for Kyiv and Chisinau are nearly identical. The details further in the documents, however, tell a different story. "The specifics allow us to assert: the European Union has already recognised that Moldova has overtaken Ukraine," European Pravda writes.

The European Commission maintains its own internal ranking of the four countries leading the European integration race, and Ukraine now sits in fourth place, behind Moldova.

Moldova is described as "well advanced" in meeting the interim criteria required of candidates. According to European Pravda's sources, the Commission has already prepared a positive statement on the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report, which covers the fundamental benchmarks of the accession process, and is expected to send it to member states for approval soon.

The Commission's plans for the next stage of negotiations highlight the gap between the two neighbours. For Ukraine, the roadmap envisions starting to close negotiating chapters only at the end of the first quarter, a timeline the analysis describes as ambitious given Kyiv's currently slow progress in implementing the benchmark report.

For Moldova, by contrast, the roadmap envisages closing nine chapters in the first half of 2027 alone, followed by another 16 chapters by the end of the year, a total of 25 chapters within twelve months.

The roadmaps stop short of predicting when any of the frontrunners might conclude accession negotiations, a sign that Brussels hopes Ukraine will accelerate the pace of its reforms.

The European Commission unveiled its annual enlargement package on 4 November, assessing the progress of 10 candidate countries and placing Ukraine among the four that have made the greatest progress.

At the same time, the Commission's report on Ukraine indicated that its improved assessment of the country's progress toward membership, particularly in the fight against corruption, was achieved not thanks to, but despite the actions of the Ukrainian authorities.