New Zealand's governing centre-right National Party and the opposition centre-left Labour Party are running neck and neck in polls just days before the country's general election on November 7, with neither party on course to win enough seats to govern alone. Under the country's mixed-member proportional electoral system, the outcome could well be decided by smaller parties.
New Zealand holds a general election every three years under the mixed-member proportional system, known as MMP. Voters cast two ballots: one for a candidate in their local electorate and one for a party. Winning candidates in each of the 71 electorates take their seats automatically, and seven electorates are reserved for Maori, the country's Indigenous people, whose voters can enrol on either the Maori or the general electoral roll.
The party vote determines each party's overall share of seats, with about 49 additional seats filled from party lists so that representation in parliament matches the proportion of the vote. A party must win 5 percent of the party vote or at least one electorate to enter parliament. In the 120-seat legislature, a majority is usually 61 seats. If a party wins more electorates than its vote share entitles it to, it keeps them and extra seats are added, as happened in 2023 when Te Pati Maori won six of the seven Maori electorates despite receiving only 3.1 percent of the party vote.
Because seats closely track the party vote, single-party majorities are rare. Every government since MMP was instituted in 1996 has been a coalition headed by Labour or National, except in 2020, when Labour under then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern won in a landslide and governed alone.
Incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is seeking a second term. A former Air New Zealand chief executive, he entered parliament in 2020 as the MP for the Auckland seat of Botany and became National's leader a year later. He led the party back to power in 2023 on promises of better economic management, ending six years of Labour-led government, and now governs in a three-party coalition with New Zealand First and ACT. His leadership has come under pressure, however, and he survived two attempted no-confidence votes by National MPs in April and August, the second orchestrated by his own defence minister at the time, amid declining popularity, rising economic pressure and tensions within the coalition.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins, 48, is bidding to return to the top job. First elected to parliament in 2008, he became prime minister in January 2023 after Ardern resigned, then lost power in the election that October but stayed on to lead Labour in opposition.
The economy dominates the campaign, though proposed remedies differ widely. National is pledging to return the budget to surplus through fiscal discipline while expanding the national pension scheme. Labour is focusing on the cost of living, promising cheaper healthcare and transport, investment in jobs, housing and infrastructure, and stronger public services. Smaller parties on both sides are targeting power companies and supermarkets: New Zealand First wants to break up major electricity companies and split one of the largest supermarket operators in two, while the Greens want a state-owned power company, a publicly owned supermarket chain, tougher rules on grocery prices, a wealth tax, higher taxes on big companies and banks, and lower income tax for most people. The centrist Opportunity party favours a land value tax. Immigration and voting rights are also in play, with ACT wanting to deport serious offenders regardless of how long they have lived in the country and New Zealand First seeking to restrict voting to citizens, rather than legal residents with more than 12 months of continuous residence as the law currently allows.
The real contest is between rival blocs. National would again need both current coalition partners, while Labour would depend on the Greens and possibly Opportunity, which must clear the 5 percent threshold or win an electorate for its votes to count toward a majority. The final size of parliament is another unknown, since polls suggest Te Pati Maori may again win more electorates than its vote share justifies, adding extra seats and raising the bar for a majority to 62 if parliament grows to 122 seats.
Among the smaller parties, New Zealand First is led by Winston Peters, who wants the country to leave the Paris climate agreement and the central bank to target employment and inflation. ACT, led by David Seymour, describes itself as classical liberal and right-libertarian and holds 11 of parliament's 123 seats. The Greens, co-led by Chloe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson, centre their campaign on social justice, living costs, nature and political funding reform, along with home insulation and zero-interest loans for household solar panels and batteries. Te Pati Maori, co-led by Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, is campaigning on Maori roll enrolment, housing, health, education, environmental protection and constitutional transformation. Opportunity, founded by economist Gareth Morgan in 2016, has never won a seat and peaked at 2.6 percent of the vote in 2017; its leader, Auckland businesswoman Qiulae Wong, says the party is neither left nor right and is focused on boosting economic growth.
Smaller parties have repeatedly played kingmaker. In 2017, National won 56 seats to Labour's 46 but could not form a majority, and Labour took power through a coalition with New Zealand First, supported by the Greens. New Zealand First also backed National after the 1996 election, the first under MMP, and Te Pati Maori supported National-led governments after the 2008, 2011 and 2014 elections. The role can bring senior posts: Peters served as deputy prime minister until May 2025, with Seymour holding the job since mid-2025. This time, the newest potential kingmaker is Opportunity, which could play that role for the first time, a decade after its founding, if Labour needs its seats to govern.
