SportsLine has released a new betting recommendation for Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season, highlighting a high-risk, high-reward parlay opportunity. The model suggests a seven-leg combination that could pay out almost $2.2 million for a standard $10 wager. This longshot strategy relies on a proprietary computer simulation that analyzes every NFL game by running 10,000 iterations of each contest to determine the most probable outcomes.
The betting model has demonstrated strong performance since its inception, reporting a record of 62-52 on its top-rated picks dating back to 2024. For players who have wagered $100 on these top recommendations, the model has generated returns exceeding $5,000. This track record forms the basis of the current Week 10 prediction, which incorporates recent odds and team statistics to construct the parlay.
One of the central components of this parlay involves a player prop for Los Angeles Rams running back Blake Corum. The model backs Corum to score an anytime touchdown in the Rams' matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. This selection carries odds of +115. Corum has established a consistent scoring trend, finding the end zone in five consecutive games. This streak includes a 15-yard reception touchdown against the Cardinals during Week 6.
Statistical trends support this selection, as Arizona allows the second-most points per game among all NFL teams. Additionally, the Rams' offensive dynamics have shifted in Corum's favor. He is averaging 13.3 touches over the last three weeks, a significant increase from his average of 8.3 touches over the previous four games. This increased workload is partly due to injuries, as the Rams currently have no healthy wide receivers available for Sunday's game with more than 11 career catches, creating space for the running game.
Corum's efficiency in critical situations further validates the pick. All 11 of his touches in the red zone have occurred during his current five-game scoring run. The model projects Corum for 0.49 touchdowns in this specific game, which is the second-highest projection among all players in the Rams versus Cardinals contest. Furthermore, three of the last five touchdowns allowed by Arizona have been scored on the ground, aligning with Corum's role as a rushing threat.
The broader parlay strategy also considers the frequency of overtime games in recent weeks. There have been nine overtime contests in the past five weeks, with at least one occurring in each of those weeks. The model notes that six of the last eight overtime games this season have been interconference matchups. This trend suggests that targeting close spreads for potential overtime extensions could be a viable strategy. Relevant Sunday games with tight spreads include the Patriots versus the Lions, the Chiefs versus the Falcons, and the Raiders versus the Seahawks.
In addition to the player prop, the seven-leg parlay includes two winning margin predictions. Each of these margin picks offers a return of approximately +400. The combination of these specific outcomes, along with the other five legs of the ticket, creates the massive potential payout. While the full list of picks is exclusive to SportsLine subscribers, the structure of the bet relies on the model's ability to identify slight edges in complex game scripts.
For bettors interested in longshot returns, the model emphasizes the value of precise predictions. Whether predicting exact touchdown totals or specific scoring margins, the simulation aims to find value in odds that the general market may overlook. The Week 10 slate offers several opportunities for such precision, particularly in games with favorable statistical profiles for underdogs or specific players.
The SportsLine model continues to refine its data inputs as the season progresses, adjusting for injuries, weather, and recent performance trends. The current recommendation reflects a digest of the latest Week 10 odds, positioning the parlay as a calculated gamble rather than a pure lottery ticket. The potential for a nearly $2.2 million return on a modest stake illustrates the volatility and excitement inherent in NFL longshot betting.
As the NFL enters the final stretch of its schedule, these detailed predictions provide a structured approach to navigating complex betting markets. By combining consistent player performance with broader game trends, the model offers a comprehensive view of potential outcomes for Sunday's slate. Bettors can access the full details of the seven-leg parlay through SportsLine to evaluate the specific legs and total odds.
