SportsLine NFL expert Mike Tierney has released his recommended betting strategies for the upcoming Week 10 slate of games. The veteran sportswriter, whose work has appeared in major publications including the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times, has constructed two distinct parlays. One parlay focuses on teams considered heavy favorites, while the other highlights underdogs that he believes have a strong chance to upset expectations. Tierney has covered the league for decades, reporting from seven Super Bowls, and maintains a record of 320 wins, 271 losses, and 16 pushes in the NFL over the past four seasons.
In terms of betting performance, Tierney has returned $1,867 for every $100 wagered by players over the last four years. His success rate against the spread has been particularly strong, with a record of 130 wins and 101 losses, resulting in a 56.3 percent win percentage over the past two seasons. For the current week, he has identified specific matchups that align with his analytical approach, including games featuring rookie quarterbacks in difficult positions and established stars performing in prime time slots.
The first recommended parlay centers on three teams that are considered heavy favorites. Tierney suggests backing the Los Angeles Rams against the Arizona Cardinals on the money line. Although wide receiver Puka Nacua is sidelined with an injury, limiting quarterback Matthew Stafford’s primary target, the Rams’ defensive duo of Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald presents a significant challenge for rookie quarterback Carson Beck. The Cardinals have also lost key offensive players Jeremiyah Love and Michael Wilson, which has further weakened their attack.
The second selection in the favorites parlay involves the Seattle Seahawks facing the Las Vegas Raiders. Tierney notes that rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza, despite his talent, faces a difficult task against Seattle’s defense, which is the stingiest in the league overall and against the pass. The Seahawks are led by Drew Lock, who is filling in for the injured Sam Darnold. Lock has remained undefeated as a starter for Seattle, and the Raiders’ defense, which allows the most points against the run in the league, should struggle to contain the Seahawks’ ground game.
The third favorite is the Kansas City Chiefs, who will face the Atlanta Falcons. The Chiefs recently acquired wide receiver Josh Downs in a trade, adding another option for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is managing a sore elbow. Running back Kenneth Walker III provides a strong running threat, further bolstering the Chiefs’ offense. In contrast, the Falcons have lost four of their last five games, leading management to make roster moves that suggest a potential pivot for the remainder of the season. The Falcons’ 1-4 home record highlights the diminishing value of home-field advantage this year.
Tierney’s second parlay focuses on underdogs that he believes are undervalued by the betting market. The first pick is the Carolina Panthers against the New Orleans Saints. The Panthers have demonstrated more offensive upside, winning their three games by a combined 48 points, compared to the Saints’ 15 points. Carolina is the league’s most pass-heavy team, while New Orleans allows for high passing statistics. Although the Panthers have dealt with injuries, several players resumed practice this week, providing hope for improved health. The Saints, however, have a 1-4 record at home.
The second underdog selection is the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers are fresh off a bye week, while the Bengals return from an international game in Madrid. Historical data suggests that teams coming off a bye have a perfect record against opponents playing on international soil. The Steelers possess one of the league’s most efficient defenses, allowing only 18 points per game, which should counter the Bengals’ high-scoring offense that has recorded 30 or more points in four consecutive games.
The final underdog pick is the Los Angeles Chargers against the Baltimore Ravens. Despite being ravaged by injuries, the Chargers are considered too talented to remain winless for the entire season. The Ravens have lost three consecutive games by margins of over 20 points and are missing star quarterback Lamar Jackson. New acquisition Jacoby Brissett is preparing for his first start, and his less aggressive pass rush may allow quarterback Justin Herbert to avoid the high sack totals he has faced recently. Herbert is managing a hand injury but is viewed as one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league.
