The National Hockey League is poised to begin formal negotiations for a new national media rights agreement on January 1, marking a critical test for the league's market value. The NHL plans to discuss terms with its current partners, Disney/ESPN and Skydance, the new owner of TNT Sports. According to sources, the league is seeking a significant increase in overall rights fees, targeting a rise between 50% and 100% compared to its existing contract. The current deal, signed in 2021, is worth $4.5 billion over seven years.
Whether the NHL can secure such a substantial increase remains uncertain, but the outcome will be closely watched by sports business analysts. National media rights currently account for approximately 13% of the league's annual revenue, which CNBC estimates to be around $8 billion. Both Disney and Skydance have expressed a desire to renew the partnership, with preliminary conversations taking place over the past few weeks. While there is mutual interest in finalizing a deal, significant work remains to be done regarding pricing.
The bull case for the NHL is supported by strong recent viewership trends. Last season, the playoffs drew record high audiences, averaging 1.8 million viewers per game. The Stanley Cup Finals, contested between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Vegas Golden Knights, averaged 5.2 million viewers, the highest figure since 2019. Additionally, the regular season averaged 546,000 viewers across ESPN, ABC, and TNT Sports, a 25% increase from the previous year and the highest average in more than a decade.
Cultural momentum is also driving interest in the sport. The HBO Max series Heated Rivalry, a hockey romance, averaged 10.6 million viewers per episode earlier this year. International competitions have also performed well, with the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off final between the United States and Canada drawing 9.3 million viewers. This year, the men's gold medal hockey game at the Winter Olympics averaged 26 million viewers on NBC and Peacock, making it the most-watched sporting event in U.S. history with a start time before 9 a.m. ET.
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman expressed confidence in the league's position during a recent appearance on CNBC. He noted that ratings have increased dramatically, with double-digit growth last year. Bettman stated that the league views itself as entering the marketplace from a strong position, despite the competitive and fragmented nature of the current media landscape. He believes the fierce competition between traditional television and newer platforms presents a great opportunity to expand reach and secure appropriate compensation.
Historical precedents suggest the NHL may achieve its goals. The NBA recently nearly tripled its national media rights revenue by signing an 11-year, $77 billion contract with Disney, Amazon, and NBCUniversal. Similarly, the NHL secured a deal in Canada with Rogers Communications last year that included an annual increase of more than 100% when adjusted for currency fluctuations. These examples provide a benchmark for what major sports leagues can expect in the current market.
However, the bear case highlights potential challenges for the NHL. Skydance, the owner of TNT Sports, has stated that its top two priorities are paying down debt and saving funds for a massive upcoming NFL rights renewal, which could cost $1 billion per season or more. Skydance is committed to renewing its NFL deal, with talks likely to occur in 2028. Consequently, the NHL may not be as critical for distribution leverage as it was for Warner Bros. Discovery, given Skydance's other premier sports properties.
Skydance CEO David Ellison indicated a disciplined approach to future rights acquisitions during an earnings call this week. He emphasized that every right must earn its place, hinting that the company may drop certain assets from the Warner Bros. Discovery portfolio in the coming years. While Skydance still needs programming for its cable networks, the NHL is viewed as less of a must-have compared to other major sports rights.
If Skydance seeks a smaller package, it could open the door for new bidders. Versant, the parent company of CNBC, is reportedly interested in acquiring a slice of NHL games. Amazon, Netflix, Fox, and NBCUniversal are also potential contenders, though their interest may be tempered by the high costs of renewing NFL rights. The final value of the NHL deal will likely set a standard for other media rights coming to market, including those for Major League Baseball, which may be affected by labor negotiations.
