Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman is projected to defeat incumbent Karen Bass and become the city’s 44th mayor, according to Decision Desk H.Q. The result would mark a major victory for local progressives after a contest shaped by frustration over housing costs, declining entertainment production and Bass’ response to the Palisades wildfire.

The projection remained unconfirmed by other major news organizations, including NBC News. Raman held a lead of more than three percentage points with nearly three-quarters of the expected vote counted. Final results could take a week or longer, with mail ballots postmarked by Election Day remaining eligible if they arrive by early next week.

Addressing supporters at the Greek Theatre in Griffith Park on Nov. 3, Raman rejected the idea that Los Angeles’ difficulties were permanent. Her campaign challenged the local Democratic establishment from the left, drawing on a progressive movement with strong support among younger residents who rent their homes.

Raman, 45, was born in India and would become Los Angeles’ first Asian American mayor. An urban planner educated at Harvard and MIT, she founded a homelessness nonprofit in Los Angeles and led the workplace sexual harassment advocacy organization Time’s Up before winning a council seat in 2020. Her district encompasses entertainment industry landmarks and neighborhoods stretching from the San Fernando Valley through the Hollywood Hills to Los Feliz and Silver Lake.

Hollywood donors supporting Raman’s mayoral bid included Tina Fey, Mike Schur, Mindy Kaling and Cord Jefferson. Her husband, writer and producer Vali Chandrasekaran, has worked on shows including 30 Rock and Modern Family. Bass also attracted prominent entertainment supporters, among them Jane Fonda, J.J. Abrams, Samuel L. Jackson and Anthony Anderson.

Both candidates supported unlimited state film and television tax credits and a federal incentive intended to strengthen the country’s competitiveness in production. Raman criticized Bass for delays in appointing an industry liaison, although her own record of advocating for Hollywood also faced scrutiny. Housing has been central to Raman’s council work. After initially backing Measure ULA, commonly called the Mansion Tax, she sought changes over its unintended effects on apartment construction.

Bass, 73, became Los Angeles’ first female mayor and its second Black mayor after a career that included leading California’s state assembly and serving more than a decade in Congress. Despite criticism of her wildfire response, she secured the vote of Rick Caruso, the developer she defeated in 2022. Caruso announced his support in October after declining another run.

Raman’s late entry created divisions among council progressives who had already endorsed Bass. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath and City Controller Kenneth Mejia were her leading supporters among sitting local officials. The Democratic Socialists of America’s Los Angeles chapter also endorsed her, despite having censured her in 2024 over her positions on Israel, while the organization’s national leadership challenged that endorsement.

A Raman administration would serve during Los Angeles’ hosting of the 2028 Summer Olympics, giving the city an opportunity to improve its image on an international stage. Former Lucasfilm chief Kathleen Kennedy recently assumed oversight of the ceremonies after Peter Rice left that role to become Netflix’s chief content officer.