Alan Milburn has told critics demanding swifter and deeper cuts to out-of-work benefits for young people that "there is no such thing as a free lunch", warning that bringing down the UK's benefits bill will take a decade.
The former health secretary is set to publish a major review on Tuesday calling on ministers to adopt radical reforms to tackle the country's youth unemployment crisis, which has pushed the number of young people not in employment, education or training, known as Neets, to around one million.
Speaking on the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme, Milburn said the government would have to be "candid with people" about the scale of the challenge. He said it would take 10 years for the benefits bill to fall and for youth unemployment to reach what he called a "reasonable level" under his recommendations, and cautioned that extra investment in young people would cost billions of pounds over that period.
Milburn rejected the idea that the crisis could be solved quickly, saying it was impossible to "wave a magic wand". "You can if you just do crude cuts," he said. "But if you do crude cuts in benefits, all that happens is that young people show up somewhere else on the government ledger."
Pressed on what he would say to opponents such as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who has repeatedly argued for benefits to be slashed over a short timeframe, he replied: "There's no such thing as a free lunch. If you are going to will the ends, you've got to will the means." He added: "I don't think there's a single person in this country who believes that it's tolerable to have 1 million young people, aged 16 to 24, who are not in education, employment, or training."
The Labour government is bracing for resistance to the proposals from its own backbenchers on the left of the party, who rebelled against Keir Starmer's welfare reform plans last summer. Milburn said: "When I talk to Labour MPs about this, they know quite well that in their constituencies there are hundreds, sometimes thousands, of young people who are being doomed to a life on benefits."
The long-awaited report will promise almost half a million job and education opportunities within a decade, alongside sweeping changes to the benefits system for under-25s. It will recommend that some young people with disabilities lose their ongoing personal independence payment, or Pip, and instead apply to local funds for short-term expenses and equipment.
While entitlement for those with the most severe needs will be protected, most under-25s would no longer qualify for either Pip or the health element of universal credit. They would instead receive a new youth allowance paid at the standard universal credit rate.
Work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden told Sky News the overhaul would carry an "element of compulsion" for Neets, pointing to countries such as the Netherlands, where teams "literally knock on your door" to offer young people training or work options. Appearing separately on the Kuenssberg programme, he accepted that some people would receive fewer benefits, noting that the number of young people claiming Pip had doubled since the start of the decade while those on the health element of universal credit had risen by 80%.
McFadden also defended the direction of the review, saying of Milburn's position: "He's saying if you have a long-term disability, that means you can never work. You will actually get more than you will now." He warned of the cost of inaction: "If you're 20 right now and you sign on to long-term sickness benefits, you've got more chance of marking your 30th birthday and still being on them than having a steady job in between."
