Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has established a marginal lead in the Alaska Senate race, trailing by approximately 500 votes according to results from Decision Desk HQ. This narrow margin places a potential eighth Senate flip within reach for the Democratic Party. As of nearly 11 a.m. EST on Wednesday, Peltola was ahead of incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan with 48.2 percent of the vote compared to Sullivan's 47.9 percent, with roughly 70 percent of the expected total vote already counted.
The state of Alaska does not organize its voting districts into counties. Instead, it tallies results by state house district. Data from Decision Desk HQ indicates that Peltola is currently exceeding her electoral benchmarks in 26 of the 40 state house districts. These benchmarks represent the estimated vote share required to secure a statewide victory. In contrast, Sullivan is surpassing his own projected marks in the remaining 14 districts.
Peltola currently holds the advantage in a majority of the state house districts, leading in 24 of them. The outstanding ballots suggest there may still be room for Peltola to expand her lead. Districts where Peltola is ahead have reported an average of 68.6 percent of the expected vote. Meanwhile, districts where Sullivan is leading have reported a higher average of 73.2 percent of the expected vote, indicating that more results may be incoming in his favor.
If neither candidate secures 50 percent of the vote, Alaska will initiate its instant runoff process under the ranked choice voting system. This procedure involves tallying voters' second, third, and fourth place preferences, provided they ranked all candidates, and reallocating those votes to the remaining contenders until one candidate achieves a majority. However, this process cannot commence until all ballots have been fully counted and processed.
Due to the expansive and rural nature of the state, ballots are allowed 15 days after the election to arrive. According to the Alaska Division of Elections, the state is not required to report additional vote totals until November 10. On that date, most remaining early and mail ballots will be counted, though some jurisdictions may report results in the interim. The final vote count will be determined by November 18, which is when the state will execute the ranked choice voting if necessary.
A separate proposition on this year's ballot aimed at repealing ranked choice voting is currently losing by a margin of nearly four points, according to Decision Desk HQ data. Nonpartisan election news site Votebeat also confirmed that no new votes are expected to be reported until November 10, with the final determination on November 18.
Previously, a Democratic victory in Alaska was viewed as essential for the party to reclaim control of the Senate. Now, it would represent an additional seat rather than a strict requirement. Projections from Decision Desk HQ show that Democrats have already secured seven Senate seats, with Alaska and Mississippi remaining undecided.
These gains are part of a significant night for Democrats nationally, as the party has reclaimed control of Congress with comfortable margins. The race in Alaska remains closely watched as the final piece of the puzzle in the Senate balance of power.
