Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to hold a rally in Topeka on Monday, October 26, in support of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. The Republican National Convention says Vance will speak at a steel fabrication business.
The stop comes about a week after President Donald Trump appeared in Park City. It will be Vance's second trip to Kansas in the past two months.
With Election Day one week away, the Senate contest has been tighter than usual in a state that has long leaned Republican. Michael Smith, a political science professor at Emporia State University, says that closeness is a likely reason for the visit.
Smith argues the campaign has reached the stage where it is entirely about motivating committed supporters. "Trump, hands down, no one else even comes close, is the most popular figure in the Republican Party, and so any time they can bring Trump into it they're hoping to motivate their base," he said. Since Trump has already been to Kansas, Smith believes Vance's draw lies in his closeness to the president. "They're hoping that some of that Trump magic will rub off on Vance," he said.
Smith does not expect the rally to sway independents or undecided voters. "We're past persuasion at this point, in fact early voting has already started, there is no time left to persuade," he said.
He also sees a difficult environment for Republicans. Midterm turnout is traditionally low, and Smith says Trump's policies are unpopular with independents and undecided voters, and in some cases with Republicans too. He pointed to tariffs and the war in Iran in particular. Even so, he believes Trump personally remains popular with the party base.
Smith expects Vance to lean on the Trump-style rhetoric he has grown comfortable with, especially criticism of the opposition. The main target will likely be Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton, as Vance tries to energize people who would not vote for a Democrat.
Whether those voters turn out may matter most. "They're not thrilled with the direction of the country, with the tariffs and the war with Iran and inflation, so yes, whether or not they show up to vote is a big question right now," Smith said.
He noted that political rallies were once considered ineffective until Trump made them central to his strategy, and he stressed that every vote counts.
Doors for the Topeka event open at 2 p.m. Monday, and the rally begins at 4 p.m. Vance is expected to speak at 5:15 p.m.
