As the 2026 NFL season approaches its midpoint, every team remains mathematically eligible for the postseason. However, the landscape is beginning to clarify as contenders separate from pretenders. To project the final playoff field and champion, analytics expert Stephen Oh simulated all remaining regular season and playoff games. The model accounts for 151 regular season games and 13 playoff contests, offering a detailed look at the potential end of the season.
In the American Football Conference, the Broncos have disrupted the AFC West hierarchy following a victory over the Chiefs. The simulation projects Denver to win the division title for the second consecutive year. This outcome would send the Kansas City Chiefs to the playoffs as a wild card team, a scenario that has not occurred during Patrick Mahomes' tenure as a starter. The projected AFC field includes the Bills, Jaguars, Broncos, and Bengals as division winners, with the Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots securing wild card spots.
The National Football Conference projections have seen significant shifts, particularly in the NFC North. The Chicago Bears have claimed the projected division lead after a dominant performance against the Seattle Seahawks. This marks the third time this season that the projected NFC North winner has changed. The model also highlights a potential historical first, where two teams could win their divisions with losing records. The New York Giants are projected to win the NFC East at 8-8-1, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to win the NFC South at 8-9, despite starting the season 0-4.
The wild card round features several high-stakes matchups. The simulation predicts the Jaguars will defeat the Patriots, the Broncos will beat the Steelers, and the Bengals will edge out the Chiefs. In the NFC, the Bears are projected to overcome the Seahawks, while the Lions will finally win a road playoff game against the Giants. The Buccaneers are expected to defeat the Vikings, becoming the first NFC team to reach the playoffs after starting a season 0-4.
In the divisional round, the Bills are projected to defeat the Bengals in their new stadium. The Jaguars are set to continue their rivalry dominance by beating the Broncos, a scenario that echoes their 1996 victory. In the NFC, the 49ers are projected to defeat the Lions, extending their streak of conference title appearances. The Bears will face the Buccaneers in a matchup that serves as a preview of their regular season meeting, with Chicago projected to win and advance to their first NFC title game since 2010.
The conference championship games will see the Bills face the Jaguars in the AFC, with Buffalo projected to win a close contest. In the NFC, the Bears will face the 49ers. The simulation highlights the importance of the Bears' defensive acquisition, Jeffery Simmons, in securing a victory over San Francisco. This win would break a historical trend where the 49ers had defeated the Bears in both previous NFC title meetings in 1984 and 1988.
The simulation culminates in Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium, where the Buffalo Bills are projected to defeat the Chicago Bears 27-26. This victory would be the first for Bills head coach Joe Brady in his first year on the job, joining a select group of coaches with similar achievements. The game is predicted to be a defensive battle, with the Bears unable to contain Josh Allen despite their strong defensive efforts.
This projection represents a shift from previous weekly simulations, as the Bears have not been projected to reach the Super Bowl earlier in the season. The model assigns the Bears a 17.96 percent chance of winning the NFC, slightly ahead of the 49ers. The Bills hold the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl at 15.5 percent, with no other team exceeding 10 percent in the model's calculations.
The simulation underscores the volatility of the NFL season, where division winners can emerge from unexpected records and long-standing rivals find new paths to the championship. For the Bears, this projection offers a glimpse of a potential historic season, while for the Bills, it confirms their status as the top contenders in the league.
