Russia appears to have intensified its shadow war in Europe this year, according to European officials and security experts. Fighter planes have been accused of veering into Polish, Lithuanian and Estonian airspace to test reaction times, and suspected Russian drones have been shot down over Poland, Finland and the Baltic states.
The Black Sea has also become a flashpoint. In two separate operations in October, Ukraine accused Russia of using aerial and surface drones to sink four cargo ships just outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, a European Union and NATO member. Kyiv sees the attacks as a warning that Ukrainian grain exports passing near NATO waters may not stay safe.
Russia and Belarus have also been accused of trying to destabilise the Baltic states by making their borders appear fluid. Latvia's ambassador to Greece, Ieva Cesniece, described masked and most likely armed individuals on the Belarus side who tried to push groups of migrants into Latvia and threatened Latvian soldiers and border guards. In a separate incident the same day, she said, masked individuals crossed into Latvia, damaged border infrastructure and removed surveillance equipment.
Cesniece tied the campaign directly to the war in Ukraine. "The weaker Russia appears in Ukraine, the more it tests our resilience, trying to weaken NATO and EU resolve and support for Ukraine," she said. On the battlefield, two Ukrainian counteroffensives have blunted Moscow's main push to capture the eastern region of Donetsk and have in effect denied it territorial gains this year.
Warnings have multiplied since a failed August plot to blow up cargo planes at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, which the European Commission later verified as a Russian operation. In September, Czech spy chief Michal Koudelka said Russia might attempt a military attack on a NATO member in "months, not years". Days later, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova declared that European defence industries supplying Ukraine were legitimate targets.
This month, representatives of five EU intelligence agencies told the Financial Times that Russia was seeking to "kill" European defence bosses and target their supply chains. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported that Russia had planted incendiary devices in the Munich offices of defence companies Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing. Politico reported that EU security officials believe Moscow plans to move beyond messaging and claim lives on European soil.
European officials have talked about hardening data centres, telecommunications and other vulnerable networks, but not about retaliation. Olena Tregub, cofounder and head of Ukraine's Independent Anti-Corruption Commission, said deterrence means convincing an adversary that continuing will become too costly, and she doubts Russia currently sees the costs as high enough. She argued Europe has not done enough to identify the networks behind operations, expose command structures, disrupt financing and impose consequences.
Oleksandr Danylyuk, a Russian warfare expert with the Royal United Services Institute, said Russia is limited only by its capabilities because "there is no reaction". He called for more NATO forward troops in the Baltic states to create "deterrence by denial". Minna Alander of the Center for European Policy Analysis said denying visas to Russians, retaliatory cyberattacks, further interdiction of the Russian oil fleet and sanctions on Chinese suppliers of defence goods to Russia were all realistic options.
Danylyuk said the most potent tool is money, suggesting Europe raise support for Ukraine by perhaps 10 or 20 percent each time Russian intelligence operations are detected. Yet allies are signalling the opposite, he observed: the United States withdrew its military and financial support in January 2025, and in France and Germany the governments trail opposition leaders who want to end aid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the European Council on October 16 that the war will cost 155 billion euros next year and that Ukraine needs at least 70 billion euros more. He said Ukraine could double or even triple drone production with that support, and warned that Europe will speak loudly about the threat once ballistic and cruise missiles and thousands of drones arrive.
