Russia lost another of its closest partners in Europe this week when Serbian voters handed a decisive defeat to the party of former President Aleksandar Vucic. The result came as tensions between Kyiv and Washington raised questions about US-brokered talks on ending the war in Ukraine, which are expected to resume next month.
The Serbian outcome follows the April defeat of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party in Hungary, which ended the long rule of a leader who told President Vladimir Putin last year, "I am at your service." Ruth Deyermond, a Russia expert at King's College London, wrote on X that "Putin's not having his best year." Vucic conceded and accused his opponents of carrying out "dirty work devised by someone else to bring down a sovereign country."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded in measured terms. He said Moscow hopes the new political forces will understand that cooperation with Russia serves Serbia's interests, adding that "it takes two to tango." The incoming government is not expected to change Serbia's sanctions policy toward Russia immediately, but leading Student List candidate Ilija Srdanovic told RFE/RL on October 27 that the stance could be reconsidered through public debate.
Ivana Stradner of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies noted that Serbia's student movement includes pro-Western, pro-Russian and neutral voices united by a demand for the rule of law. She said Russia retains structural leverage through energy dependence and ties to Serbia's intelligence and security apparatus.
On the battlefield, Russian gains in eastern Ukraine have been minor and costly, and an unexpected Ukrainian counteroffensive has complicated Putin's goal of seizing the part of the Donbas his forces have not yet captured. Even so, analysts doubt Moscow is ready to concede anything. Journalists Farida Rustamova and Howard Amos reported on October 23 that officials in contact with Putin say he believes escalation and intensified air attacks will force Kyiv to make concessions.
Pressure on Kyiv has also come from Washington. On October 10, President Donald Trump accused President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of passing up chances for a peace deal and said Ukraine should "get a new leader." A day earlier he announced an agreement with Putin to bring Russian diesel to the United States and other markets, and on October 17 he waived tougher new sanctions on Russia just before they were due to take effect. Ukraine also said it did not receive US intelligence warning of Russian air attacks, and reported that the Starshield satellite system it relies on operated at limited speeds for a time. Both appear to be back to normal.
The talks, which could be held in Abu Dhabi, have been dormant since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February. No date has been set. Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said Moscow sees little room for progress now but views the talks as a way to prepare an eventual settlement on its terms. Analyst Mark Galeotti was more upbeat, citing signs that proposals have moved away from an earlier plan that was too favorable to Russia and that Europeans are more involved. Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store spoke with Putin on October 27, though the Kremlin's account was chilly.
The main obstacle remains the part of Donetsk region that Russia has not captured. Putin and other officials insist Ukraine must cede it, while Zelenskyy and most Ukrainians refuse. Galeotti said both sides appear locked in and does not expect peace before spring.
The violence continues. An October 26 report by the UN's Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine said Russian authorities committed war crimes and crimes against humanity by attacking civilians and critical energy infrastructure. On October 29, Ukrainian officials said a Russian drone strike on the main train station in Dnipro killed at least 13 people. Zelenskyy said "fair and decisive actions by America and Europe are needed against Russian escalation."
