The president of the Marshall Islands has issued a stark warning that the world as currently understood is ending if nations do not provide an overwhelming response to the climate crisis. Hilda Heine addressed dozens of heads of state gathered in Turkey for the Cop31 climate summit, emphasizing the severe consequences of overshooting the 1.5C temperature target established by the Paris agreement. She described a scenario where rising tides erode coastlines and floods devastate essential infrastructure such as schools and hospitals. Heine shared a personal observation from July, noting how vibrant coral near her home island had turned white just months later due to bleaching. She urged the assembly to wake up, stating that the global response to the threat of temperature overshoot must be decisive or the current world order will collapse.
Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley joined the call for stronger action, criticizing governments that have not attempted to curb emissions with sufficient intensity since the Paris accord. Citing United Nations data, Mottley noted that even if all current pledges are fulfilled, the planet is on track for a 2.6C increase. She added that current policies point toward a 2.8C rise. Mottley described this potential overshoot not as a new target but as a debt of heat borrowed against the future of children, which must be repaid.
The opening of the summit on the third day of Cop31 featured passionate addresses mixed with displays of Turkish music and dance. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres, delivering one of his final speeches in the role before stepping down next month, blamed the fossil fuel industry for deceiving the public. He criticized countries that claim commitment to the 1.5C goal while continuing to expand fossil fuel production. Guterres called for an extraordinary acceleration in efforts, stating that the clock is winding down and it is make or break time for the planet. He argued that fossil fuels must disappear, noting that unlike the dinosaurs, the industry has a powerful lobby that prevents natural extinction.
Guterres highlighted how oil and gas companies have delayed climate action by distorting scientific findings. He proposed a windfall tax on the significant profits these companies have earned from the Iran war, suggesting the revenue should help vulnerable nations recover from climate impacts. He urged governments to end their addiction to fossil fuels and ensure polluters pay for the damage. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, co-hosting the event with Australia, called for Cop31 to be remembered as a turning point. He urged countries to act rather than just make promises, warning that every minute of failure increases risks and costs. However, earlier in the week, Erdoğan celebrated the discovery of two new oilfields with an estimated potential of 135 million barrels, a fact that contrasted with his calls for reduced fossil fuel reliance.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the conference as a historic moment for his country, which is a major exporter of coal and liquefied gas. While stating that governments have a solemn responsibility to act, Albanese faced criticism for not explicitly mentioning fossil fuels in his address. Heine, in her speech, noted that every new oil well and piece of coal extracted threatens the future of her nation. She expressed fear rather than celebration regarding the discovery of new fossil fuel resources, without naming specific producers.
The gathering of leaders was described as relatively thin in attendance. According to the UN, 91 national leaders were present, but major figures such as US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were absent. Other leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, declined to attend and are instead traveling to Ireland for a conference on artificial intelligence. Despite the presence of many leaders, most countries are lagging in emissions reductions, and there is insufficient finance for nations most vulnerable to extreme weather events. The world is currently experiencing one of the strongest El Niño events in history while moving past the 1.5C limit, yet there are few signs of progress on phasing out fossil fuels.
Bill Hare, a climate scientist and chief executive of Climate Analytics, reported a growing sense of panic within the scientific community. He described conversations with experts on rainforests and the cryosphere as fraught, noting that the mood among scientists is darkening and that many feel progress has reversed. Small island nations face an existential threat from rising sea levels and are particularly exposed when global heating exceeds the 1.5C threshold. The UN Environment Programme has stated that overshooting this limit is now inevitable and warned that the effects on icy regions will be calamitous, necessitating that the overshoot be kept as brief and low as possible.
Other leaders stressed the urgency of the moment and the need for multilateral cooperation. Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, president of North Macedonia, said the current generation is the first to fully understand the consequences of its choices and perhaps the last with enough time to change course. She warned that future generations will live with the results of decisions made now. Nataša Pirc Musar, president of Slovenia, questioned what would remain to unite humanity if human dignity and respect for nature were not placed at the heart of global decisions.
