Turnout divide helped Democrats gain ground across the South

Democrats’ gains across the South in the 2026 midterm elections reflected a sharp divide in voter participation, according to an NPR analysis. Areas that supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 generally retained more of their presidential election turnout, while places that backed President Trump recorded larger declines and fewer Republican votes.

The analysis covered Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Turnout fell 19% in counties Harris carried, compared with 26% in counties Trump won. Louisiana calls its county equivalents parishes. The six states moved toward Democrats by an average of 22 points, exceeding the national shift of about 14.5 points. The participation gap helped Democrats flip Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Mississippi, and contributed to an unexpectedly close Senate contest in Louisiana.

Mississippi Democrat Scott Colom received approximately 8,100 more votes than Harris had secured in the state in 2024. With final ballots still being counted, his lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith stood at just over 5,600 votes. Across the six states, Democratic Senate candidates surpassed Harris’ vote totals in 170 counties, while Republican nominees collectively received hundreds of thousands fewer votes than Trump.

Black voter participation was a significant part of the pattern. Polling and election data before the midterms had indicated increased participation in special elections and primaries, driven partly by the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais ruling, which gutted part of the Voting Rights Act. The decision prompted congressional map changes in Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana and North Carolina. North Carolina’s new boundaries were drawn with the aim of producing an 11-to-3 Republican delegation, but Democrats are now on course for an 11-to-3 majority.

Sixteen majority-Black counties cast more Democratic votes than in the 2024 election, including 12 in Mississippi. Clay County, Mississippi, recorded the largest turnout increase, rising 17 points between 2024 and 2026. Democratic candidates also benefited more broadly from retaining a larger share of their party’s presidential election voters.

In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff received roughly 79,000 fewer votes than Harris had two years earlier, even though the statewide total fell by more than 1 million votes. Every one of Georgia’s 159 counties shifted toward Democrats. Ossoff carried 12 counties that had voted Republican in 2024, including suburban Fayette County, and won by 14 points.

South Carolina’s Greenville, Spartanburg and Lexington counties recorded the largest increases in Democratic vote totals compared with 2024. Greenville County, which Trump had carried by 20 points, backed Democratic Sen.-elect Annie Andrews by approximately two points.

Republican losses were particularly pronounced in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper won the Senate race by 20 points. His Republican opponent, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, received 1.25 million fewer votes than Trump had in 2024, a decline of roughly 43%. Wake and Mecklenburg counties recorded about 100,000 and 90,000 fewer Republican votes, respectively.

Republican vote totals also fell substantially around Atlanta. Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb and Cherokee counties each recorded declines of between 35,000 and 77,000 GOP votes. Democrats experienced smaller losses in those counties, with modest increases in Gwinnett and Cherokee.