The best record in the NBA's Western Conference does not belong to the San Antonio Spurs, the Thunder, the Rockets or the Lakers. It belongs to the Portland Trail Blazers, who at 6-1 sit percentage points ahead of both Houston and Los Angeles, each 7-2, in the early days of the season.
Portland's hot start comes with some caveats. Four of the Blazers' six wins have come against three of the bottom four teams in the West: the Suns twice, plus the Jazz and Kings. Their most impressive result was last week's 136-129 victory over the Lakers in Los Angeles, when Deni Avdija and Ja Morant scored 23 points apiece to help Portland overcome 41 points and nine assists from Luke Doncic.
The teams meet again on Friday at Crypto.com Arena, with tipoff at 10 p.m. Eastern on Prime Video. Los Angeles is a 2.5-point favorite, and the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, gives the Lakers a 61% chance to cover with a 'C' grade. Los Angeles leads the league in offensive efficiency at 121.1 points per 100 possessions despite ranking 26th in turnover rate at 17.6%. SportsLine expert Doug "Prop Bet Guy" Kralstein likes Portland's Toumani Camara to make more than 2.5 three-pointers, noting Camara had hit at least three in six straight games before Wednesday's matchup with the Suns. "Los Angeles is allowing the ninth most 3-pointers taken, and the seventh-highest catch-and-shoot 3-pointer frequency (thanks to the looming presence of Walker Kessler in the paint)," Kralstein told SportsLine.
Friday's NBA schedule features eight other games, including the 76ers visiting the Cavaliers at 7:30 p.m. in Cleveland, also on Prime Video. It is the second meeting between the teams this season. In the first, played in Philadelphia, Cleveland built a 29-point lead late in the second quarter before the 76ers rallied behind Tyrese Maxey's 32 points for a 114-106 win. Philadelphia is still searching for its offensive rhythm, scoring 110.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 20th in the league. The model says Cleveland has a 62% chance to cover and assigns a moderate 'B' grade to the Cavaliers at +2.5.
On the college football side, Virginia Tech visits SMU at 7 p.m. in Dallas on ESPN in what amounts to an ACC elimination game. The Mustangs (6-2, 4-2 in ACC play) and the Hokies (6-2, 3-2) both remain in the hunt for the conference championship game but cannot afford another loss. SMU is coming off a road defeat at Syracuse on Halloween, while Virginia Tech enters off a bye week. "This game against SMU is a monumental one, and I like the way the Hokies have played defense all season long," SportsLine expert Emory Hunt said, taking Virginia Tech +6.5. The model disagrees, giving the Mustangs a 60% chance to cover with a 'B' grade on SMU -6.5.
At 8 p.m., Nebraska visits Illinois in Champaign on FOX, with the two programs moving in opposite directions. The Illini (5-3, 3-2 in Big Ten play) have won three straight, while the Cornhuskers (5-3, 2-3) have dropped three in a row, each by one score. Nebraska's combined turnover margin during the skid is minus-3, after posting plus-6 over its first five games. "Losing close games is what Nebraska does best, so if I have a chance to fade it as a road favorite in a one-score game against an Illinois team that excels in such situations, how can I not?" SportsLine's Tom Fornelli said, backing Illinois at +165. The model instead gives Nebraska a 56% chance to cover with a 'C' grade on the Cornhuskers at -4.
The night closes at 10:15 p.m. with TCU visiting No. 24 Arizona in Tucson on ESPN. The Wildcats (6-2, 3-2 in Big 12 play) aim to keep their longshot conference and College Football Playoff hopes alive against the Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3). TCU has struggled offensively all season, averaging 23.3 points per game, which ranks 15th in the Big 12 and 101st in the country. "TCU has the eighth-best scoring defense in the country (14.1 points per game), while Arizona has only surrendered 34 points combined in four home games," SportsLine's Eric Cohen said in taking Under 45.5. The model sees it differently, projecting a 63.7% chance the teams combine for 47 points or more and assigning a strong 'A' grade to Over 46.5.
