US forces in the Middle East are ready to launch new and potentially major military operations against Iran within 96 hours of receiving an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials who spoke to CNN. They said enough forces are already in the region to carry out the attacks.
The officials said any new campaign would likely go well beyond efforts to "mow the lawn," meaning strikes on radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly rebuilt. That approach has been the pattern since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year. "It will be a big effort," one official said. Some current and former officials believe it is a question of when, not if, Trump gives the go-order, and that it could come before the end of the year, most likely after the US midterm elections.
Planners acknowledge obstacles. Iranian forces are now more familiar with American tactics, which would make it harder to destroy every intended target. Even so, leaders at US Central Command and the Pentagon have been building a wide-ranging target list that includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities. Officials say Trump has not settled on a course but appears to be leaning toward major action, though they noted he has previously seemed to favor an option only to back away at the last moment.
The White House declined to comment. A senior Pentagon official said in a statement that the department is a planning organization whose job is to develop and carry out military options ordered by the president.
Recent US intelligence assessments suggest Iran and Houthi rebels are taking the prospect of renewed US and possibly Israeli attacks very seriously, according to two other sources. They would likely retaliate immediately against American personnel and facilities in the region and possibly beyond. An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel, with plots reaching advanced stages in the Middle East and certain other countries. Intelligence officials believe Tehran and the Houthis are unlikely to launch preemptive attacks but would respond if struck first.
The threat is one reason the US is expected to keep quietly drawing down staff at its Middle East embassies in the coming days. The embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is the only facility currently under ordered departure, but others are expected to follow or be scaled down under personnel caps. Nonessential military personnel slated for the next troop rotation have also been told they will not be sent.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, flew over the Strait of Hormuz by helicopter on Sunday while the US maintains its blockade of Iranian ports and helps guide shipping through the waterway. He met service members who cleared Iranian mines and said the US stands "shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry." Oil prices remain high despite more tanker traffic, partly because of the threat of Iranian attacks. One US official called the status quo "untenable" over the long term, a factor that could push Trump toward military action absent a diplomatic breakthrough.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed for new strikes on Iran, but two US officials and an Israeli security source said Washington asked him to wait until the administration is ready for joint operations. The Israeli source said Trump declined a joint attack before Israel's elections, partly because IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned US Gen. Dan Caine it could harm the vote and cause its postponement. Netanyahu's office called that "fake news," and Defense Minister Israel Katz called a separate Channel 12 report of a confrontation between Zamir and Netanyahu "completely baseless and false."
All of the sources said Israel appears to have postponed strikes for now while preparing for possible joint operations with the US, likely after the midterms. One source said Israel needs US missile defense support, as its defensive munitions have been strained during the war. Netanyahu said this week that his directive to security branches is to topple the regime in Iran. "The plans are ready, waiting for Trump's approval, could be after the midterms," the source said.
