The White House is facing a problem that will sound familiar to Democrats: economic indicators that are not necessarily bad, paired with a public mood that is. The same disconnect weighed on Joe Biden in 2024, when strong headline figures failed to persuade many voters that the economy was working in their favor.
Donald Trump campaigned in 2024 on a promise of quick relief from rising prices. "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," he said. Delivering on that has proved harder than expected. Growth is holding up, unemployment is low and the stock market is near record highs, yet the last inflation report before the midterm elections confirms that prices remain high.
The underlying figures are respectable. US economic growth of 2.2% would compare well with many wealthy economies, and Germany, for one, has struggled to match that momentum. Unemployment is steady at 4.2%. But average hourly earnings have risen 3% over the past year while consumer prices have climbed 3.7%, meaning wages have not kept pace. Polls continue to show voters giving Trump poor marks on the economy.
Trump says he inherited an economic mess from Biden and cites growth, investment and stock market performance as proof his policies work. After the latest inflation report, White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said the administration's "aggressive, pro-growth economic agenda" had blunted "Biden's inflation crisis." Larry Kudlow, a Trump ally and economic commentator, has called the expansion "the greatest story never told" and argued that "nobody is getting fired."
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says part of the trouble is that economists and voters use the same words differently. "When economists say inflation comes down, they mean the rate of increase has come down," she says. "When voters say inflation has come down, they mean the price has returned to what it was. Well, of course, it never returns to what it was." Lake, who advised Biden's 2020 campaign but not his 2024 effort, adds: "You can't argue with people about their own lived reality."
Trump has less room than Biden to point to outside forces. Biden could cite the pandemic and its supply chain aftershocks, while some economists say today's higher prices are at least partly the result of Trump's own policies, including tariffs, as well as the fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran. Peter Morici, a University of Maryland economist who aligns with Republicans, says: "The inflation is clearly traceable to Donald Trump. It's his tariffs and the war. People know that. They see it."
The "Liberation Day" tariffs announced in April 2025 have added to consumer costs. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found they raised consumer goods prices by about 2.9%. The effect might have been bigger had Trump not paused some tariffs, struck new trade deals and been blocked by the Supreme Court from using emergency powers to impose many others. The conflict with Iran then pushed oil prices higher, raising petrol costs and straining household budgets further.
The White House points to tax cuts, job growth and lower prescription drug costs as evidence it is delivering for families, and it is leaning into measures aimed at easing pressure. Trump has called for a cap on credit card interest rates and floated a $5,000 payment to American adults if Republicans keep control of Congress.
Biden never found a way to close the gap between economic performance and economic sentiment. Heading into the midterms, the question is whether Trump can. If recent political history is a guide, perceptions of the economy may matter more than the data itself.
