The Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings in the Week 9 edition of Monday Night Football, a matchup pitting one of the league's most explosive offenses against arguably its best defense. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, with television coverage on ESPN and ABC. Buffalo enters as a three-point favorite, and the over/under is set at 43.5, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota is coming off its first loss of the season after opening the year with six consecutive wins. The Vikings will turn to Carson Wentz at quarterback in place of Kyler Murray, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Buffalo, meanwhile, has won three straight games to improve to 6-1, including last week's victory over the Baltimore Ravens, who lost Lamar Jackson to injury on their first snap of the game. The Bills sit in first place in the AFC East behind an efficient offense that has helped offset a highly vulnerable defense.
When Buffalo has the ball, the chess match between quarterback Josh Allen and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores takes center stage. Minnesota blitzes at a relentless rate against both the run and the pass. Last week, the Vikings shut down one of the league's best offenses in the first half, holding the Lions to 154 total yards on 36 plays, an average of 4.3 per snap, along with only six points and a 25% rushing success rate before the break.
The Bills counter with one of the NFL's best ground games, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, fourth in the league. James Cook, who led the NFL in rushing last season, is averaging nearly six more rushing yards per game than he did a year ago. Allen has been blitzed on exactly one-third of his dropbacks, the 11th-highest rate in the league, per Tru Media. On those plays he is 46 of 70 for 587 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions, and he has been sacked six times. That leaves him fourth in yards per attempt at 8.4 and seventh in passing success rate at 50.0%, but only 15th in EPA per dropback, largely because of the interceptions.
Getting the ball out quickly against the blitz could mean heavy involvement for underneath targets such as Khalil Shakir and passing-down back Ty Johnson. It may be a quieter night for tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, since teams often keep their tight ends in pass protection against Flores' defense. Deep shots to DJ Moore and Keon Coleman could also be hard to come by, though Minnesota has surrendered occasional big plays this year because its aggression leaves the secondary shorthanded.
When the Vikings have the ball, the numbers are grim. Minnesota's 4.7 yards per play is tied for third-worst in the NFL, its 1.71 points per drive rank fifth-worst, and its minus-0.14 expected points added per play is second-worst, according to Tru Media. The Vikings have yet to gain more than 364 yards in any game, have been held to 275 or fewer in five of seven contests, and have scored more than 23 points only once, back in Week 1 against Green Bay, when late touchdown drives of 28, 1 and 14 yards padded the total.
Some of those struggles fall on Murray, who has completed 64.9% of his passes at just 6.6 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and three interceptions, and some on a run game averaging under 4.0 yards per carry, with Jordan Mason at 3.9 per attempt after missing four games. Wentz went 23 of 39 for 276 yards and three touchdowns in just over one game of relief work earlier this season, and he appeared to have stronger chemistry with Justin Jefferson. Jefferson caught eight passes for 92 yards and two scores during Wentz's Week 1 relief appearance, drawing seven of Wentz's 19 pass attempts.
If Minnesota can keep Wentz protected, Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson should find openings against a leaky Buffalo back seven. Running the ball figures to be difficult, as the Bills allow only 3.9 yards per carry. The prediction here is that Buffalo's ability to run with Allen and Cook proves decisive in a relatively low-scoring game: Bills 20, Vikings 14.
