The Champions League league phase reaches its midpoint on Wednesday night, and recent rounds suggest it will get there amid a flurry of goals. The slate is busy at both ends of the table, with Real Madrid, Arsenal and Manchester City all in action, Real Betis putting their perfect record on the line at Borussia Dortmund, and Porto running out of margin for error at home to Napoli.
Judged only on the European standings, Liverpool look exactly as advertised. The roughly half a billion spent on their attack since the start of last season has produced 12 goals in three Champions League games, with Bradley Barcola, Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai among those sharing the load for Andoni Iraola's side. The domestic picture is far less convincing. Nine games into the Premier League season, Liverpool have just 11 goals, and the underlying numbers are more worrying than the finishing. Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Barcola and Cody Gakpo have produced two league goals from 5.24 expected goals, but the bigger problem is a team that ranks 11th in the division for expected goals.
The issue is shot quality. Across Europe's top five leagues, the average shot this season is worth 0.111 xG, and Liverpool rarely get close to that mark. Just under 40 percent of their attempts come from outside the box, and they lead the top five leagues in the share of shots that get blocked at 37.9 percent. That was not a flaw in Iraola's previous team. Bournemouth ranked highly for xG per shot from open play and dead balls last season, evidence of a side that had absorbed its coach's ideas. The alternative explanation, that Liverpool's expensive attacking talents simply do not fit together, is one nobody at the club wants to entertain.
There is also reason to be cautious about Liverpool's European scoring numbers. Their last two fixtures, away to LASK and at home to Villarreal, were inviting opportunities to pad the tally, and the 12 goals have come from 7.23 xG with a quarter of their shots blocked. Anyone assuming they can flick a switch when the Champions League anthem plays in Istanbul on Wednesday night may be getting ahead of themselves.
Porto have no such ambiguity about their situation. Stuck in 35th place, they and Slovan Bratislava are the only teams yet to register a point, and while a home defeat to Napoli would not mathematically eliminate them, the projections suggest nine points will be needed to reach the knockout round. Francesco Farioli's side would still fancy themselves away to Slavia Prague and at home to LASK, but their other remaining fixtures include tricky road trips to Feyenoord and Liverpool.
The margins in their losses have been fine. The first half against Manchester City was even before Erling Haaland's late winner, Real Betis struck twice in the final 16 minutes to beat them in Seville, and PSV edged them with perhaps the only clear chance of that game. The root problem is volume. Porto have managed just 30 shots worth a combined 2.7 xG in three matches. Strikers Samu Aghehowa and Andre Silva have four attempts between them, Gabri Veiga has five, and Borja Sainz, who averages nearly three and a half shots per game in the Primeira Liga, is yet to take one in Europe.
"The Champions League is a different competition," Farioli said. "The demands and the details make all the difference. Being effective at every moment is important, as we've seen in the first three matches. In terms of performances, we're doing well, but we can do more, because this isn't enough. We're working to raise our level, and tomorrow is the moment to do that and claim the points we want so much." Fail to deliver, and Porto's European season may effectively be over.
At the other end of the table, Serhou Guirassy returns to his favorite stage when Dortmund host Betis. Some might apply the label of Bundesliga tax to a striker with 40 goals in his last 71 league games, but the 30 year old scores in every competition. He has 23 goals in 31 Champions League appearances, four of them for Rennes, and while seven were penalties, his 0.63 non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes holds up. His poacher's finish from his only shot helped Dortmund to a 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich in his last outing.
Guirassy has scored in every European meeting with Spanish opposition, including a hat trick against Barcelona in 2025, and the 6ft 2in Guinean presents a physical profile La Liga defenses rarely encounter. Betis, one of only four teams still holding a 100 percent record, look vulnerable. They have conceded a little over 2.5 xG across their three games against Lille, Porto and Feyenoord, and they sit 18th in La Liga for both set piece xG allowed and set piece goals conceded. It could be another productive evening for Dortmund's striker.
