Voters do not need to spend the entire election night refreshing their devices for updates. David Wasserman, a senior elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, suggested that the first useful clues regarding the outcome might not arrive until 7:30 p.m. ET. He offered this advice in an interview on Morning Edition, where he discussed final campaign strategies and methods for getting an early read on the returns.
Wasserman analyzed the final push by President Trump and former President Barack Obama. He noted that Trump is working to energize his base while simultaneously struggling to retain voters who helped elect him. This includes some voters who had previously supported Obama twice. According to the analyst, these voters were initially drawn to Trump's 2024 promises of a stronger economy, fewer foreign conflicts, and the protection of popular social safety net programs. However, independents are now rating Trump low on all three fronts, which is helping Democrats gain an advantage.
Additionally, Wasserman observed that some Republican candidates are distancing themselves from the president. These candidates prefer to frame their races as a choice between themselves and their Democratic opponents rather than a referendum on the president's overall performance.
Regarding the timing of results, Wasserman explained that early votes from Florida are expected to start rolling in between 7:00 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET. By 8:00 p.m. ET, large batches of votes from Texas and Ohio could provide a clearer picture of the battle for control of the Senate.
The analyst also cautioned against relying solely on exit polls. While exit polls can indicate which issues matter to voters, they are not always a reliable guide for determining who is winning. Wasserman pointed out that SSRS, which conducts exit polling for major television networks, combines Election Day interviews with a pre-election survey. This pre-election survey faces similar challenges to other polls, such as low response rates.
Wasserman emphasized the need for patience, stating, "We really have to wait for the hard results to be able to draw inferences on what's happening."
Beyond the Senate and governor's races that are drawing national attention, Wasserman identified several House districts that could offer early signs of how the night will unfold. Kentucky's 6th Congressional District is one such race. This close contest in the Lexington area could provide an early indication of the national picture, particularly because polls in that region close relatively early.
Florida's 22nd and 14th Congressional Districts are also critical to watch. Both are considered toss-ups, with one located in South Florida and the other in Tampa. Wasserman noted that if Democrats win both of these districts, it would signal a strong night for the party.
South Carolina's 1st Congressional District is another race to monitor. This is an open seat in the Charleston area previously held by Republican Nancy Mace. The outcome could be affected by the close Senate contest taking place in the same state.
Finally, Wasserman highlighted three different tests in Virginia's 2nd, 1st, and 5th Congressional Districts. A win for Republican Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District would be a better-than-expected result for Republicans. The 1st District race between Republican Rob Wittman and Democrat Shannon Taylor could go either way. However, if Democrat Tom Perriello unseats Republican John McGuire in the 5th District, it could mean Democrats are not just having a good night but are riding a wave big enough to reshape the political map. As Wasserman put it, "batten down the hatches because this could be a tsunami."
