Serbia has entered a new political era after the opposition Student List won a historic election victory on Sunday, ending 14 years of dominance by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Presidential elections are due in December, and Belgrade now faces a turbulent transition.
Observers and neighbouring countries are asking whether the change will bring a shift in foreign policy. Analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera cautioned against expecting a quick pivot toward the West, a pattern often anticipated when an authoritarian government falls. They said that consolidating the country's internal affairs will come first and that any transformation will be gradual.
Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, said a rapid reset with Serbia's neighbours is unlikely. "These questions will not be on the agenda immediately," he said. In his view, the new authorities must first deal with a system that has "captured all democratic institutions", along with problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media. "Tidying up at home" will precede "solving problems with the neighbours", he said.
Relations in the Western Balkans have often been strained by Vucic's nationalistic rhetoric. Popov described ties with Croatia as "not frozen" but not what they should be between neighbours, citing frequent sharp words. During recent mass protests, Vucic accused Zagreb of organising a "colour revolution". Popov added that relations with Montenegro are disrupted and that issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved. He argued that the SNS clashed with Croatia's ruling HDZ, and that the system "functioned on the production of internal and external enemies", even as Belgrade and Zagreb quietly converged on Bosnia, backing Milorad Dodik and a third entity respectively.
Popov hopes a new government led by experts and civic leaders will stabilise the region and revive Serbia's bid to join the European Union. "The previous government sabotaged EU integration and the EU will not accept a country without good neighbourly relations. The new government's task will be to repair those damaged ties," he said.
On Russia and Ukraine, Vucic maintained a balancing act, refusing to impose sanctions on Moscow despite heavy EU pressure while allowing ammunition to reach Ukraine indirectly. Vuk Vuksanovic, a foreign policy lecturer at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will change the least of all areas of public policy. He said Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but saw him as "the devil they knew". Russian influence will suffer, he said, as uncritical praise of Moscow in Vucic-controlled media ends and intelligence cooperation is downgraded. Even so, he does not expect a hawkish stance overnight, citing the need for preferential gas prices, the unresolved Kosovo dispute and public disillusionment with the West.
Vuksanovic said Serbia will keep refusing to recognise the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, but that ammunition deliveries are in question, since the opposition saw Vucic's weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule.
Serbia's close relationship with Israel under Vucic, marked by arms trade and technology exchanges with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, is also likely to be reviewed. Foreign policy analyst Bosko Jaksic said there is no reason to abandon cooperation, but newly concluded contracts will be re-examined, mainly Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. He noted that Netanyahu has lost another "authoritarian, nationalist ally" in Europe after Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary earlier this year, and that Israel's stance toward Belgrade will depend largely on the outcome of its own elections.
Jaksic also said the policy of "sitting on multiple chairs", which he argued brought Serbia more harm than good, will be re-evaluated, and that stronger ties with the EU are a realistic expectation. All of the analysts agreed that the international community should expect intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignment.