The fight for control of Congress is drawing heavy spending ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections, with Texas, Ohio and Michigan hosting the most expensive Senate contests. The vote is expected to test public approval of President Donald Trump halfway through his second term. Keeping Republican majorities in both chambers would be important to advancing his legislative agenda during his remaining two years.
Advertising firm AdImpact estimated that spending on advertisements and reservations had reached $11.21 billion by October 26, compared with $3.2 billion during the 2024 presidential election season. Overall spending this cycle is projected to set records, as campaigns, parties and outside organisations concentrate resources on closely contested seats that could determine congressional control.
Texas has attracted more than $534 million in spending from campaigns and outside groups. Democrat James Talarico is seeking to defeat Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and become the first Democrat to win statewide office since 1994. Nearly all major polls suggest a narrow Talarico advantage, with CNN putting him at 49 percent against Paxton’s 43 percent in late October. State figures showed nearly 4.5 million people voted during the first week of early voting.
Talarico has raised $146 million, far exceeding Paxton’s approximately $22 million. Outside spending, however, heavily favours the Republican: nearly $300 million has supported Paxton, against about $80 million for Talarico. MAGA Inc, a super PAC aligned with Trump, has provided roughly $37 million for Paxton. The contest is projected to break spending records for a US Senate race.
Ohio’s Senate contest between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted ranks second, with spending exceeding $435 million. Approximately $248 million has reportedly supported Husted, compared with $187 million for Brown. An October 20 Marist Poll gave Brown a four-point advantage, although other surveys indicated an essentially even race. In Michigan, spending on the contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has reached an estimated $333 million.
El-Sayed raised approximately $54 million to Rogers’s $23 million, but outside organisations spent about $169 million supporting Rogers and $94 million supporting El-Sayed. A late October Michigan State University poll placed El-Sayed ahead by 48 percent to 45.5 percent. Despite Republican advantages in fundraising and spending nationally, polling suggests Democrats will probably regain the House and are also favoured to win Senate control.
Federal Election Commission filings show Republicans have raised more money than Democrats since the beginning of 2025. The Democratic National Committee collected nearly $252.3 million and spent about $252.8 million. By October 14, the Republican National Committee had received approximately $341 million and spent roughly $303 million. Politico’s donor analysis found Republicans increasingly dependent on large contributors as their small-dollar donor base contracted, with most ordinary donors’ contributions going directly to Trump.
Tesla and SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk contributed $446 million, while Uline’s Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein gave about $150 million. Susquehanna International Group founder Jeff Yass and his wife, Janice, contributed $110 million to right-wing causes. More than $150 million of Musk’s donations went towards boosting Paxton, representing one of the largest political contributions in US history.
Among donors supporting the left, George Soros gave approximately $102 million. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg pledged $84.2 million to Democrats and added another $36 million on Friday. LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman and his wife, Michelle Yee, contributed about $41.2 million. Wealthy donors have increasingly directed money towards Senate candidates as the House appears more likely to shift to Democratic control.
