Democrats Lead National Polls Five Days Before US Midterms, but Senate Races Stay Tight

With five days left before the United States midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans in national polling, though several Senate contests remain close. According to RealClearPolling's national average, Democrats stand at 51.4 percent against 43.2 percent for Republicans, a gap of 8.2 percentage points.

That advantage does not carry over evenly to every Senate race. In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 48.5 percent to 46.7 percent in the poll aggregator's figures. In Michigan, a Mitchell Research poll for CBS Detroit, conducted October 26 and 27, found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 51 percent to 44 percent, up from a 4.2-point lead earlier in the month. RealClearPolling shows a tighter race there, with El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent.

Campaigners in Michigan are focusing on young voters. Will Lawrence, a Democratic candidate for the state's 7th Congressional District, said young people "could really be the difference-maker on November 3rd." Democratic Congressman Maxwell Frost, who travelled from Florida to back El-Sayed, pointed to ads he described as bigoted and Islamophobic and stressed the value of person-to-person conversations with voters. A Republican supporter told Al Jazeera that a shift toward conservatism among Gen Z is going unnoticed.

Frustration with both parties also surfaced among voters. One in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, who describes themself as independent, said they felt "out of hope." Democratic strategist Joel Rubin called the vote a potential "protest election," saying Democratic voters largely want to check President Donald Trump's power. Republican strategist Suhail Khan said some of Trump's own voters are frustrated by rising fuel prices, rents and mortgage costs.

Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to flip each chamber. Republicans hold 53 of the 100 Senate seats, while Democrats hold 47, including two independents who caucus with them. A majority requires 51 seats. Al Jazeera's Scott McLean said even optimistic Republicans expect a tough fight to keep the House, but the Senate is a different story. He noted that even if Democrats win North Carolina and Ohio and keep their current seats, they would still be two short of 51. Alaska and Texas could help, while Republicans hope to win Michigan.

Winning the House alone would still matter for Trump. Democrats could block parts of his legislative agenda, launch investigations into his administration and call officials to testify before committees, although the White House could challenge such demands.

On the trail on Wednesday, Trump campaigned in Ohio for Republican Senator Jon Husted, who faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. He defended Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy over backlash to an advertisement featuring the estranged mother of Democratic rival Amy Acton, asking: "How the hell is that his problem?" After protesters interrupted him, Trump also said he had expelled the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein from his Mar-a-Lago club two decades ago.

In Georgia, former President Barack Obama joined Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, saying Republicans were more concerned about his Cheesecake Factory joke on White House renovations than the rising cost of living. "These are not serious people," he said. Vice President JD Vance rallied in North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley.

Trump is due in South Carolina on Thursday, then Florida on Friday and Kansas on Saturday. Vance will hold a rally in Weatherford, Texas, on Thursday, and Talarico will campaign in Dallas. Al Jazeera's Phil Lavelle reported that Republicans worry about rural Texas turnout, where 21 percent of registered voters have voted, compared with 24 percent in metropolitan areas. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is expected in Georgia, where Ossoff defends his seat against Republican Mike Collins and early in-person voting ends Friday.