The European Union has partnership arrangements with several non-member countries, but experts say none of them match what Canada is seeking. A joint statement expected at the 21st Canada-EU summit in Montreal on Friday is set to promise closer ties, though the exact meaning of that remains unclear.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced last month that the EU would begin work on making Canada its first "associate member." On Wednesday, sources told CBC News that the term had been dropped from the draft statement in favour of language about an "ever-closer association." The sources said some EU countries had objected to the "associate member" label, and that the draft could still change before the end of the week.
Prime Minister Mark Carney had favoured different wording from the start, such as "an alliance for the future." A senior EU official said Tuesday that the bloc's 27 members were united in wanting the "closest possible association" with Canada.
Existing models include the Schengen Area, the world's largest border-free travel zone, which covers 25 EU countries plus Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Those four non-EU states also form the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which gives them close economic links with the EU without costing them autonomy, but also without giving them a say in EU decisions. Monaco, Andorra, Turkey and San Marino belong to the EU Customs Union, which removes internal tariffs and applies a common external tariff, leaving members less individual freedom than EFTA states have.
Florian Gassner of the University of British Columbia's department of Central, Eastern and Northern European studies says these arrangements are poorly suited to Canada. "To put it in one phrase, the Canadian economy is too large and integrated into global markets to be rebuilt in the short term to fit into these existing agreements," he told CBC News. A senior Canadian official previously said an analysis of the EU's other non-member relationships concluded they would not work because Ottawa does not want to trade away independence for access. Gassner believes Canada is aiming for privileged access to the European market without amending its own constitution.
Gassner describes a "fundamental push and pull" between enfranchisement and regulation. Joining was costly for Romania, which had to overhaul traditional farming practices, while Bulgaria "lost control" over its Black Sea coast as European corporations bought coastal property. The United Kingdom left the EU in 2020 after a referendum. Gassner notes that Switzerland has benefited from EFTA because the deal lets EU-trained doctors fill its large need for health-care workers.
Labour mobility and student exchanges have featured in the talks, but Gassner says Canada is probably wary on border issues as it balances its own immigration policy, and that free movement may not be "politically acceptable" amid an influx of refugees to Europe. He also points to economic worries, such as highly subsidized European dairy products that would "ruin" the Canadian market. He sees Iceland as a touchstone: in August, the EFTA member voted against starting full EU accession, partly to keep control of its fishing zones.
Experts say it is too early to predict the final shape of the partnership. Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, expects it to cover defence as well as trade. He says Canada still differs from the EU in places, noting Carney's more aggressive response to U.S. tariffs, and that full membership would mean the EU negotiating with the U.S. on Canada's behalf, which "would not fly" in Canada.
"All they know is there are good feelings between them," Wiseman said. "They both want to diversify away from the U.S. They both don't want to come under China's thumb. And they think that there's a better chance for both of them to do well by co-operating."
