Brighton and Hove Albion head to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday for an EFL Cup tie with Manchester City, and the meeting comes with a bigger question attached: has the club made another leap in its 10th Premier League season? Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET, with a stream on Paramount+. Odds list City at -150, the draw at +300 and Brighton at +320.
The league table gives plenty of reason for optimism. Brighton sit third, with the division's best attack and its third-best defense, which adds up to a goal difference of plus-16. City are next on that measure at plus-11. They have also already beaten Arsenal 3-0 this season. A win over City would leave them two points off the league leaders, though Arsenal could open up a gap first.
Even a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool did little to dent the momentum. Manager Fabian Hurzeler took a swipe at Liverpool boss Andoni Iraola, arguing that "there was one team who really tried to create and try to win this game." Brighton saw seven shots blocked, and an early goal from Yasin Ayari or Charalampos Kostoulas might have changed the result.
The run is more striking given what the club lost over the summer. Danny Welbeck, the leading scorer last season, and Jan Paul van Hecke, the leader in league minutes, both departed. Carlos Baleba had a difficult, injury-hit year but was still seen as the next in a line of midfield talents. Luka Vuskovic arrived as a replacement for Van Hecke. Wingers Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh, who were both top 10 in the league in key attacking measures last season, have yet to play this year because of injuries.
Hurzeler has found answers. Maxim De Cuyper has been moved permanently to left back, where he brings attacking drive. Kostoulas and Diego Gomez have been brought in gradually, and 35-year-old Pascal Gross has four assists and three goals in the league. Gross also ranks in the 99th percentile for pressures leading to dangerous situations, according to Gradient data supplied to CBS Sports.
That energy shows in the team numbers. Brighton lead the league by allowing opponents just 7.6 passes per defensive action, and only City give the other side fewer active minutes in possession than Brighton's 21.5. They also lead in counterattacking goals, goals from corners, higher-value chances and shots from outside the box.
There are caveats. The sample is only eight games, and Brighton are one of just two teams to have had a man advantage in two matches, against Aston Villa and Coventry, which is over 10% of their data. They also played 33 minutes with 10 men against Sunderland and still added to a 1-0 lead. Their 23 goals far outstrip their 16.2 expected goals, and the win over Arsenal leaned on long-range strikes from Gross and Kostoulas.
Defensively, Brighton have conceded 11.4 expected goals and are benefiting from shot-stopping that may not last, even from a goalkeeper of Bart Verbruggen's quality. They allow the third-highest expected goals per shot in the division, partly because of weak set-piece defense, and 0.117 per shot from open play, 10% above the league average. Chelsea exposed them by breaking their press early in the season.
Still, the article's view is that Brighton look better placed than any rival for a possible fifth English Champions League spot, particularly if a sanction badly damages City's league standing, a scenario it calls reasonably likely. Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Brentford have produced similar expected goals figures but far fewer points. Whether Brighton can beat a rotated City side on Wednesday, or the full-strength team on Saturday, will be the clearest test yet.
