Ball State vs. UMass Prediction and Odds for Wednesday Night MAC Matchup

The Massachusetts Minutemen will try to snap a four-game losing streak when they host the Ball State Cardinals in a Mid-American Conference matchup on Wednesday night.

Both teams last played in late October. Ball State is coming off a 34-17 win over Sacramento State on Oct. 24, while UMass fell 35-16 at Connecticut on Oct. 23.

The Cardinals enter at 3-5 overall and 2-2 in MAC play, good for seventh in the conference standings, though they have struggled away from home with a 1-4 road record this season. The Minutemen sit at 4-4 overall and 1-3 in league play, tied for 10th in the MAC, and have gone 2-2 on their home field in 2026.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Mass. The all-time series between the programs is tied 2-2.

The Minutemen are 3.5-point favorites in the latest odds, with the over/under set at 49.5 points. Both teams have been reliable against the number this season, as Ball State is 5-3 against the spread and UMass is also 5-3 versus the line.

After simulating the matchup 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model is backing the Over on the 49.5-point total. That fits a recent trend, as the Over has hit in eight of Ball State's last 10 games.

Both offenses have shown they can score. Massachusetts ranks fourth in the MAC at 26.5 points per game, with Ball State seventh in the conference. The Cardinals' problem has been on the other side of the ball, where they are allowing a league-worst 35.3 points per game.

The model projects Ball State quarterback Keldric Luster to throw for more than 200 yards and one touchdown. Luster has thrown for 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. UMass quarterback William Watson III is projected to top 225 passing yards with two scores; he has thrown for 1,025 yards and eight touchdowns this year.

In all, the computer is calling for 52 combined points, making the Over the value side in 55% of simulations.

Beyond the total, the model also indicates that one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on all of its top-rated college football picks.