The NFL takes some of its biggest names to Spain in Week 9, as Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Cincinnati Bengals meet Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons in the 2026 NFL Madrid game. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET at the Santiago Bernabéu, the legendary home of the Real Madrid soccer club.
Cincinnati arrives at 5-2 and riding a three-game winning streak. The Bengals are coming off an overtime victory over the Tennessee Titans in which Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns.
Atlanta, meanwhile, fell to 3-5 after a rough outing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Penix threw four interceptions in rainy conditions, and the Falcons lost 16-0 even though Tampa Bay did not complete a single pass in the game.
Both clubs have plenty to play for despite their contrasting recent form. Each team sits half a game out of its division lead entering the international showcase.
The latest odds list Cincinnati as a 3.5-point favorite, with the over/under for total points scored set at 52.5.
SportsLine's projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to the 2024 season.
After running 10,000 simulations of Bengals vs. Falcons, the model is backing the Under on 52.5 points at -115 odds. It projects 52 combined points, just below the posted total, making the Under the better value in its assessment.
The matchup pairs two of the league's most productive players this season. Burrow leads the NFL with 20 passing touchdowns, while Robinson leads the league with 780 rushing yards. Burrow also benefits from a dangerous receiving duo in Tee Higgins, who has 726 receiving yards, and Chase.
Atlanta's defense will need a far better showing than it produced last week, when Tampa Bay gashed the Falcons for 324 rushing yards. On offense, Robinson and wide receiver Drake London remain the clear engines of the attack, but the Falcons need Penix to rebound quickly from his four-interception performance.
Recent history suggests points could be plentiful, as the Over has hit in three straight Bengals games. Still, this is the highest total assigned to any of their games, and the model sees more value on the Under. It also projects that one side of the spread covers in more than 50 percent of its simulations.
