The Milwaukee Brewers are one win from the first World Series championship in franchise history. They face the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 on Tuesday night with a 3-0 series lead.
Milwaukee put itself in that position on Monday with a 10-1 victory over the Rays in Game 3. A win in Game 4 would finish the series as a sweep.
First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. The Brewers are expected to use a bullpen game. Left-hander Shane Drohan (7-5, 4.19 ERA) or right-hander Dustin May (7-9, 4.70 ERA) could get the start, though Milwaukee has not confirmed its plans.
Tampa Bay is expected to send right-hander Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.53 ERA) to the mound as it tries to stay alive in the series.
In the latest betting odds, Milwaukee is a -142 favorite on the money line, meaning a bettor would risk $142 to win $100. Tampa Bay is listed at +118. The over/under for total runs is 7.
SportsLine's computer model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times, leans toward the Over in this matchup. It projects 8.8 combined runs and finds the Over to be the value side in 62% of its simulations. The model entered the 2026 World Series on a 32-25 run on its top-rated MLB money-line picks, which it says returned more than $1,000 for a $100 bettor.
The model's reasoning rests partly on recent trends. The Over has hit in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the clubs. At Tampa Bay home games with a line of 7.0 or lower, the Over is 8-5-2. In all Rays games with a line at that level, it is 20-14-3.
The model also identified players likely to produce at the plate. It projects Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and Jake Bauers of the Brewers to each reach 1.5 or more total bases. For the Rays, it projects the same for Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda.
Even with strong pitching on both sides, the model expects each lineup to deliver in key situations. The Brewers will try to close out the series, while the Rays look to avoid a sweep on their home field.
