The Cleveland Browns bring a winning record into New Orleans on Sunday, but they will face the Saints without their starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson is out with a concussion, leaving the Cleveland offense in the hands of backup Shedeur Sanders for the NFL Week 9 matchup.
New Orleans enters at 2-5 and has won just one of its last five games, yet the home team is favored. The Saints are a 3-point favorite in the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, where the Over/Under for total points is set at 42.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
Saints fans have not had much to celebrate this season. Second-year quarterback Tyler Shough has shown himself to be a capable signal caller, but there has not been enough talent around him on either side of the ball. The New Orleans defense has surrendered 27.7 points per game, the fourth most in the league, putting heavy pressure on an offense that has been middling at best.
Cleveland may sit at 5-3, but the source analysis suggests regression could be coming. Three of the Browns' wins have come against Tampa Bay, Tennessee and a Baltimore team missing Lamar Jackson. The defense has been merely fine, and the offense has managed only 17.4 points per game, a unit now led by Sanders with Watson sidelined.
The betting trends are mixed on both sides. Cleveland is 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 to the Over this season, while New Orleans is 3-4 against the spread and 4-3 to the Over.
The featured pick is the Saints on the money line. The line barely moved when news emerged that Watson was unlikely to play Sunday, an indication that oddsmakers had already anticipated his absence. The veteran has not been especially impressive this season, which the preview notes shows how willing the Browns are to throw Sanders into the fire.
It is a hefty price, but the SportsLine Projection Model believes the juice may be worth the squeeze. New Orleans wins the game in 61% of the model's simulations, making the home favorite the recommended play for Week 9.
