Sima Shine, a senior researcher and former director of the Iran and Shiite Axis Research Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, stated on Tuesday that the probability of an agreement between the United States and Iran is now higher than it was two months ago. She told The Jerusalem Post that while negotiations remain fragile, the current landscape offers a greater window for a diplomatic resolution compared to the recent past.
However, Shine cautioned that the process is not without risk. She emphasized that talks could still collapse if Washington refuses to concede on the issue of uranium enrichment or if personal egos among negotiators create insurmountable obstacles. The former head of the Research and Evaluation Division of Mossad, who served in that role until 2007, noted that both sides have distinct motivations to avoid a return to military conflict.
On the American side, Shine pointed to the results of the midterm elections as a driving factor. US President Donald Trump recently told CBS’s 60 Minutes that opposition to the Iran war and support for Israel contributed to significant Democratic victories. Shine observed that Trump’s declarations and behavior suggest he is eager to close the chapter on the conflict and focus on other priorities for the next two years.
The pressure on Iran is equally pronounced. Shine highlighted that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been largely successful, exacerbating the country's economic struggles. As winter approaches, a severe fuel shortage is expected to place additional strain on the economy. Iranian lawmakers have already begun advising households to reduce energy consumption in preparation for the coming drop in temperatures.
Despite these converging pressures, major obstacles remain. Shine noted that Iran is unlikely to accept any deal that does not allow it to continue pursuing uranium enrichment, a position that Trump has previously stated he is against. During his interview on Sunday, Trump argued that allowing Iran a nuclear weapon would be historically significant, though he acknowledged it might not be the best immediate decision for the country. He expressed concern about being criticized if Iran possessed a nuclear weapon during his presidency.
Shine believes, based on leaked information, that a good chance for an agreement still exists. She suggested that while the resulting deal may not be ideal, it represents a compromise that both sides can manage. She indicated that Iran understood early in the negotiations with Trump that he was willing to use military force, which made them more inclined to compromise on various issues, including the possibility of postponing enrichment for several years.
The expert theorized that pressure from Gulf states has also played a role in making the Trump administration more flexible. She assessed that Iran is currently in a state of uncertainty, which moderates its behavior. Furthermore, she noted that Israel’s demonstrated capabilities during recent wars, combined with the transitional political period in Israel following elections, make Iran less likely to take aggressive risks that could benefit the camp of caretaker Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Uncertainty remains regarding Trump’s next steps if a deal is not reached. According to The Sunday Times, citing a health ministry official, iodine tablets are being distributed to communities near nuclear facilities as a precaution against potential radiation exposure. This preparation suggests that military action remains a viable option on the table.
Shine concluded by describing the situation as fragile, noting a complete lack of trust between the American and Iranian sides. She stated that the ultimate direction of events depends on the decision of the Trump administration. If Trump decides to pursue an agreement, she believes he will ensure that Israel does not launch an attack, thereby securing the diplomatic outcome.
