China’s imports recorded their fastest annual growth since May 2021 in October, outpacing a sharp rise in exports and reducing the monthly trade surplus. Official figures released on November 10 showed imports increased 41.6% from a year earlier, while exports rose 35.2%. Both exceeded forecasts, although the export growth rate eased from September.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected imports to rise 32% and exports to climb 33.5%. In September, the respective increases were 31% and 36.3%. October’s trade surplus fell to $105.3 billion, its lowest level since April, according to LSEG data. That brought the surplus for the first ten months of 2026 to $1.04 trillion, compared with the record $1.2 trillion recorded for all of 2025.
Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit, attributed the import acceleration mainly to demand for technology goods, critical minerals including copper, and energy supplies. CNBC’s calculations using official figures showed the value of high-tech imports jumped 72% from a year earlier. Crude oil imports increased about 41% by value, while liquefied natural gas and coal rose roughly 50% and 60%, respectively.
Strong exports have enabled policymakers to maintain moderate support while pursuing annual economic growth of 4.5% to 5%. Domestic consumption has remained subdued, with retail sales increasing just 1.1% in September. Trading partners have intensified calls for Beijing to strengthen domestic demand and rebalance the economy. Demand for chips and other artificial intelligence hardware has supported exports, but a slowdown in global AI investment could weaken that growth and put pressure on exporters’ margins.
Other indicators suggested trade and manufacturing momentum was weakening. Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics, estimated that seasonally adjusted exports declined 2% from the previous month. A China Beige Book survey found that new domestic and export orders for goods slowed in October compared with a year earlier. Official purchasing managers’ index figures also showed an unexpected contraction in factory activity as overseas orders cooled.
Exports to the United States increased 32.9% by value in October, while imports rose nearly 35%, producing a $32.7 billion surplus. Shipments to the U.S. were up 12.1% over the first ten months of 2026, partly reflecting comparisons with last year, when dramatic tariff increases contributed to a 20% decline. Washington and Beijing agreed in September to extend their broader trade truce by two months to January, alongside measures concerning critical mineral export controls and special port fees. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet next week at the APEC summit in Shenzhen.
China’s October exports to the European Union rose 24.4%, while imports from the bloc fell more than 4%, widening the surplus to $33.4 billion. The EU reached an agreement with Beijing last month to restrict Chinese hybrid vehicle imports over the next few years. The limits take effect on December 1, but analysts expect little restraint on China’s overall export boom.
The annual ceiling of 350,000 cars exceeds the 300,000 hybrids China exported to Europe last year, according to Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. However, it is below the annualized pace of 800,000 vehicles recorded over the past three months. Setser said Europe remained far from a coherent approach to automotive trade and its wider economic relationship with China.
