College football Week 11 odds and predictions: Computer model backs Ole Miss, Wake Forest

Recent conference realignment will be on display in Week 11 of the 2026 college football season, with several first time conference matchups on the schedule. LSU against Texas will be the first SEC meeting between the programs, and the No. 14 Tigers are 3.5 point home favorites over seventh ranked Texas and quarterback Arch Manning. USC at Indiana will be the first Big Ten matchup between those schools, with the No. 4 Hoosiers favored by 7.5 points at home over the No. 20 Trojans.

Other intriguing spreads on the slate include ranked matchups such as Utah at Arizona and Wake Forest at SMU. Before locking in any Week 11 picks, SportsLine's proven model is worth a look. The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times in search of the best values on the spread, money line and over/under, and it has now made picks for every game this week.

One of the model's top Week 11 picks is 11th ranked Wake Forest (-1.5, 61.5) to cover against No. 25 SMU in a noon ET kickoff. The Demon Deacons are an ACC best 7-2 against the spread, a mark tied for the fifth best spread record in the FBS.

Wake Forest has won five straight games by 20 or more points, and its only defeat this season came against then No. 5 Miami, a game in which the Demon Deacons still covered. SMU, meanwhile, has allowed 28 points in back to back games, both against ACC teams without winning conference records. According to the model, Wake Forest covers in well over 50 percent of its 10,000 simulations.

Another Week 11 prediction has No. 19 Ole Miss (-1.5, 49.5) covering at Oklahoma well over 50 percent of the time. The Sooners are coming off a victory over Florida, but OU is just 4-9-1 against the spread following a win since the start of last season.

Ole Miss was soundly defeated by Georgia this past Saturday, but the Rebels have been resilient, covering in each of their last three games following a loss. The model sees more balance on both sides of the ball for Ole Miss, while Oklahoma's offense is the clear weak link. The Sooners lead the SEC in turnovers, rank last in the conference in rushing offense and are second worst in total offense. The model also projects the over to hit in 60 percent of simulations.

The model has also projected three underdogs to win outright in power conference matchups this week. Here are the notable Week 11 odds, which are subject to change.

Tuesday, Nov. 10: Kent State at Bowling Green (-6, 45.5); Western Michigan at Akron (+14.5, 47.5). Wednesday, Nov. 11: Buffalo at Ball State (+2.5, 51.5); UMass at Toledo (-14.5, 52.5).

Thursday, Nov. 12: Memphis at South Florida (+5.5, 48.5); Louisiana at UL Monroe (+11.5, 49.5). Friday, Nov. 13: Florida State at Pittsburgh (-4, 54.5); Illinois at UCLA (-9.5, 46.5); Houston at Colorado (+10.5, 50.5).

Saturday, Nov. 14: Wake Forest at SMU (+1.5, 61.5); Tennessee at Texas A&M (+2.5, 42.5); Boston College at Notre Dame (-30.5, 52.5); Michigan at Oregon (-11.5, 40.5); Missouri at Georgia (-14.5, 47.5); USC at Indiana (-7.5, 49.5); Ole Miss at Oklahoma (+1.5, 49.5); Florida at Kentucky (-3, 51.5); Texas at LSU (-4.5, 45.5); Utah at Arizona (+2, 53.5).