Week 10 of the college football season was circled long ago, mainly because of a preseason dream matchup between Ohio State and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Ducks have combined to lose five games and both have lost their starting quarterbacks to injury, yet somehow this Saturday's schedule looks even bigger than expected. According to ESPN's Bill Connelly, the slate is loaded with playoff implications, rivalry stakes and desperation across the country.
The headliner is No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame on Saturday night. The Hurricanes are unbeaten, while the Irish landed a surprisingly poor spot in the initial College Football Playoff ranking, seven spots below their AP ranking, leaving them in what amounts to a must-win situation. Miami will be without star receiver and Heisman contender Malachi Toney, who suffered a high ankle sprain in practice. Toney has been targeted 85 times this season, and no other Hurricane has been targeted even 35 times, so quarterback Darian Mensah will have to spread the ball to wideouts Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw and tight end Elija Lofton.
Miami's defense is the other concern. After a brilliant first five games, the Hurricanes have allowed 28.7 points per game in regulation over their past three outings and rank 120th nationally in QBR allowed. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has been careful with the ball but has yet to prove he can take over against a top defense. The Irish have injury problems of their own, with linebacker Drayk Bowen and corner DJ McKinney out, though All-America corner Leonard Moore is expected back. Notre Dame is a 7.5-point favorite.
The Holy War between BYU and Utah is a battle of top-10 teams for the first time in the rivalry's history. BYU has won all three meetings in the 2020s, but the Cougars have slipped since beating Notre Dame, including an upset loss to UCF, and star running back LJ Martin has missed four games. Utah, under rookie head coach Morgan Scalley, answered a narrow escape against Colorado by stomping Cincinnati behind a 42-point first half. The Utes are favored by 4.5 points at home.
Georgia at Ole Miss is a rematch of last season's classic CFP quarterfinal, which the Rebels won on Lucas Carneiro's 47-yard field goal after Trinidad Chambliss connected with De'Zhaun Stribling on a 40-yard bomb in the final minute. Ole Miss likely needs a win to stay on the right side of the playoff bubble and will be without injured star running back Kewan Lacy. The Rebels' strength is red zone perfection, scoring touchdowns on a national-best 83.9 percent of their trips, while Georgia has allowed a 70.6 percent red zone touchdown rate. The Bulldogs, fifth in yards per play on defense, are 3.5-point favorites.
In the SEC, Alabama at LSU and Texas at Missouri carry heavy weight. LSU coach Lane Kiffin is 0-5 against Alabama but his Tigers are six-point favorites, thanks to a defense that leads the nation in sack rate at 11.8 percent and quarterback Sam Leavitt, who ranks second in Total QBR since Week 4. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell has struggled with negative plays in losses to Georgia and Tennessee. Texas, meanwhile, will be without tackle Trevor Goosby and running back Hollywood Smothers at Missouri, where the Tigers have gone 7-2 against the spread as a home underdog since 2022.
Kentucky at Tennessee is a battle of top-20 teams for just the second time in 75 years. The Wildcats have started 5-1 in SEC play behind quarterback Kenny Minchey, who has posted a 79.3 Total QBR over his past four starts, while Tennessee counters with freshman George MacIntyre and star running back DeSean Bishop. The Volunteers are favored by 6.5 points.
One of the weekend's most intriguing matchups is No. 19 Iowa at Northwestern, where coach Chip Kelly's top-25 offense meets Phil Parker's Hawkeye defense, which ranks first nationally in three-and-out rate at 25.8 percent and has allowed just 9.9 points per game to everyone other than Ohio State. Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles was listed as questionable during the week. Elsewhere, Air Force visits Army with a chance to lock up the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy for only the second time in 10 years, though the Black Knights, winners of seven of the past nine meetings, are favored.
Even with both teams battered and their quarterbacks sidelined, Oregon at Ohio State still carries what Connelly described as major desperation vibes. It is a fitting capper to a Saturday that, against all odds, may have exceeded its considerable preseason hype.
